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I became Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice a week ago today.
In that week, it has become clear that the male prison estate is now running at over 99 percent capacity.
It has been at around that level for 18 months.
Let me explain what happens when prisons run out of space.
When prisons are full, violence rises - putting prison officers, on the front line, at risk.
When no cells are available, suspects cannot be held in custody.
This means vanloads of dangerous people circling the country, with nowhere to go.
The police would have to use their cells as a prison overflow, keeping officers off the streets.
Soon, the courts would grind to a halt, unable to hold trials.
The police would have to stop carrying out arrests.
With officers unable to act, criminals could do whatever they want, without consequence.
We could see looters running amok, smashing in windows, robbing shops and setting neighbourhoods alight.
In short, if we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system…
And a total breakdown of law and order
This is not the plot of some dystopian film.
This crisis is now very close indeed.
This week, there were 700 spaces remaining in the prison estate.
300 is officially "critical capacity", when the smallest change can trigger a chain reaction like the one I just set out.
And with the prison population rising every week, it is now clear that by September, the prisons will overflow.
There is now only one way to avert disaster.
And, believe you me, I do not choose to do this because I want to…
I have to do this, because only one option is available to me.
Most of those serving a standard determinate sentence leave prison at the half-way point, serving the rest in the community, unless they breach their licence and are returned to prison.
Today, I am announcing the government has no option but to introduce a temporary change in the law.
Those serving eligible standard determinate sentences will leave prison after serving 40 percent, rather than 50 percent, in custody.
I do not take this decision lightly.
I fully understand there is risk attached with doing so.
But to disguise reality and delay further.
Is unconscionable and will lead to disaster.
I will not let that happen.
As we have heard from leaders from across the criminal justice system…
Including prison governors and senior police officers…
This is the only, safe course of action.
I understand that people may feel worried.
But we are taking every precaution that is available to us.
Firstly, there will be exclusions:
Sentences for sex and serious violent offences will remain at 50%, or 67% for the most dangerous crimes.
So will a series of offences linked to domestic violence, including stalking, controlling or coercive behaviour and non-fatal strangulation.
We will also implement stringent protections.
While I am announcing this change today, it will not take effect until early September.
That will give the probation service time to prepare.
The risk will be assessed…
All offenders released will be subject to strict licence conditions to ensure they can be managed safely in the community.
Offenders can be forced to wear electronic tags…
And curfews will be imposed where appropriate.
If they step out of line and breach the conditions of their licence, they can be returned to prison immediately.
Finally, let me be clear: this is an emergency measure.
This is not a permanent change.
I am unapologetic in my belief that criminals must be punished.
I do not think that this 40 percent level should stand forever more.
And that is why I am committing to reviewing this again, in 18 months' time, when we believe the situation in our prisons will have stabilised.
Throughout, we will be transparent:
We will publish data on the numbers released.
And we will publish an annual prison capacity statement, legislating to make this a statutory requirement.
It must be impossible for this ever to happen again.
At the point that we implement this change, we will stop the End of Custody Supervised Licence Scheme.
This was introduced by the last government.
Data released for the first time today shows that over 10,000 offenders were released early from prison.
With scarcely any warning to probation officers, placing them under enormous, additional strain.
This was only ever a short-term fix:
I am today announcing a review into how this crisis was allowed to happen.
It will look at how and why necessary decisions were not taken at critical moments…
And the lessons that must be learned by future governments…
I must also be clear that the measures I have set out are not a silver bullet.
The capacity crisis will not disappear immediately - these measures take time to take effect.
But when they do, they will give us the time we need to address the prisons crisis, not just today but for years to come.
That means continuing the prison building programme.
This year, we will publish a ten-year capacity strategy.
This will outline the steps we will take to acquire the land needed for new sites…
And take control of the planning process, by deeming prison development of "national importance"…
Placing decision-making in ministers' hands.
We will also reform the system and drive down reoffending.
Our prisons today create better criminals, not better citizens.
Nearly eighty per cent of offending is reoffending - at immense cost to communities and the taxpayer.
A goal of my time as Lord Chancellor will be to drive that number down.
To do that, we will firstly strengthen probation.
I can announce today that this will begin by bringing in at least 1,000 new Trainee Probation Officers by the end of March 2025.
We will also bring together prison governors and local employers to help offenders get into work…
Because we know that if an offender has a job within a year of release, they are less likely to reoffend.
And only by driving down reoffending will we ever find a sustainable solution to the prisons crisis.
Our legacy will be:
A prisons system brought under control.
A probation service that keeps the public safe.
Enough prison places to meet our needs.
And prisons that break the cycle of reoffending.
Today, I have visited HMP Bedford and the local probation service in the town.
Bedford is an illustration of the immense strain placed on our prisons.
I met hard-working prison and probation staff…
Holding together a system that is at breaking point.
I would like to pay tribute to those who work on the frontlines.
As well as all the staff in the Ministry of Justice, and in partner organisations…
Who have been placed under extreme pressure.
At Bedford, I met staff working in incredibly difficult conditions…
Continuing to serve because they believe it is their duty to protect the public. Why have they had to work in these conditions?
Why are our prisons now on the point of collapse?
We stand today in HMP Five Wells, one of the newest prisons in the estate.
It is the kind of prison that can actually help prisoners break the cycle of crime for good…
And create better citizens, not better criminals.
It is not without its challenges…
No prison is, when in the grip of an overcrowding crisis.
But it does point the way to a different future.
Today, I have announced measures I never thought I would have to.
I will soon set out more detail about these changes, once Parliament is sitting again.
But I have been forced, by the scale of this emergency, to announce these measures to you here today, rather than delaying any longer.
That's because I represent a government that will never shirk its duty to protect the public.
Thank you - let's take some questions.
