Venezuela stands at a pivotal point after its recent presidential election, where Nicolás Maduro secured his position amid significant economic and social turmoil. This election highlighted a profound ideological rift within the nation, beyond just the candidates themselves.
Maduro's ongoing leadership will have significant consequences for Venezuela's internal stability and its relationships on the global stage, especially with key players like the United States and neighboring countries in Latin America.
Edgar Franco-Vivanco is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Michigan. His work encompasses Latin American politics, historical political economy, criminal violence and indigenous politics.
What is the significance of the recent win for Venezuela with Maduro?
Venezuela is, by any metric, an authoritarian regime. Nicolás Maduro has been in power for over a decade and has now been reelected for a third term in a highly questionable election, to say the least. Over the past years, his regime has been limiting political opposition and various rights for Venezuelans. Unlike his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, Maduro lacks charisma and the advantage of stable income from high oil prices. This is one of the reasons why his regime has increasingly relied on repression to maintain power. As a result, many Venezuelans have fled the country, causing one of the largest diasporas in the region.
This third reelection is key for Venezuela because Maduro is seeking to consolidate his mandate and eliminate the opposition, which surprisingly remains very vibrant in the country. Before the election, the opposition hoped that the results would be so overwhelmingly favorable to them that Maduro would have to concede. Although it is impossible to know the true result of the election due to the lack of transparency in the electoral system, there are many indications that the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, won the election. However, the problem is that the elections were not transparent nor fair by any account.
What social movements or changes might arise as a result?
We are already seeing several protests in response to the results. Opposition supporters are frustrated and angry, believing this was one of their best chances to defeat the regime. Remember that for this election, many opposition parties came together in an unprecedented alliance. A very likely outcome is that many of those opposition leaders and supporters will leave Venezuela for good after witnessing the failure of their best chance to defeat Maduro and the Chavismo.
The response of the regime is not surprising either. Maduro holds control of the army, the police, the intelligence services, paramilitary groups and the judiciary, and they will use repression and violence to contain the protests. The question here is how long the protests can withstand this political repression. Unfortunately, we will likely see more violence in the streets of Venezuela in the coming weeks. The degree of restraint in this violence will likely depend on international pressure.
What implications might this have for Venezuela's relationships with neighboring countries and major global powers?
So far, very few countries have recognized the validity of this election. Those that have primarily included Maduro's main allies, such as Russia and China. This reflects the Maduro regime's shift towards these global powers in recent years. The support of these countries is crucial for the political and economic survival of his regime.
Most democratic countries have cast doubts on the integrity of the electoral process. Among them, the United States is a key player. The U.S. has implemented a series of sanctions against the Venezuelan economy in hopes of weakening Maduro's regime. However, these sanctions have also had negative consequences on the general population, many of whom are struggling to make ends meet. As a result, many have decided to leave the country. This illustrates the difficulty of creating a strategy that punishes the regime without causing negative spillovers. Perhaps a potential route would be to implement more targeted sanctions against Maduro, his family and his inner circle.
In the region, Gabriel Boric, the left-leaning president of Chile, has already questioned the elections. Other Latin American countries, particularly Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, all led by leftist leaders, could play a major role if they choose not to recognize Maduro's victory. Moreover, the leaders of these countries could become crucial intermediaries between Maduro's government and Western powers, who are generally distrusted by the Latin American left.
How does this victory compare to previous political events in Venezuela?
Perhaps the main difference is the scale of the potential fraud and the repression of the opposition. The principal opposition leader, María Corina Machado, was banned from running as a candidate, leading to Edmundo González stepping in as a proxy candidate. Maduro's regime was nervous about the outcome of this election and the prospects of losing power. As a result, we have seen an escalation in political violence. Another significant difference in this election is the degree of organization within the opposition. To counter the regime's opacity, they have collected paper tallies and their own statistics to prove their victory. However, the pressure from below, coming from the streets, needs to be matched with pressure from above.
