As Donald Trump's begins his second term as President of the United States, a groundbreaking study led by The University of Manchester has revealed that a majority of Ukrainians hold a cautiously optimistic view of his presidency - even amid significant global uncertainty about its implications for the ongoing war with Russia.
The research is part of the "Identity and Borders in Flux: The Case of Ukraine" (IBiF) project - a collaboration between The University of Manchester, George Washington University, the University of Oxford and Kyiv School of Economics funded by The British Academy.
The study found that 54% of Ukrainians view Trump's return as generally more positive than negative for Ukraine, although regional and demographic differences persist. Younger Ukrainians aged 18-29 are particularly optimistic, with 64% expressing confidence in Trump's leadership benefiting their country.
In contrast, older Ukrainians and those living closer to the front lines of the war are more uncertain, with 42.8% of Eastern Ukrainians saying it is "hard to say" what a second Trump presidency might mean for their country.
Professor Olga Onuch, the project's lead researcher, emphasised the importance of these findings in understanding public sentiment during a time of geopolitical upheaval. "Our research highlights the nuanced and often ambivalent perspectives Ukrainians have toward Donald Trump's presidency," she said.
"Our findings may also reflect Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's recent public efforts to woo and flatter Trump as he takes the helm of Ukraine's most powerful ally," added Henry Hale of George Washington University.
Donald Trump has sparked controversy in the West with statements suggesting the US might scale back military support for Ukraine and focus on negotiating a peace deal, even if this compromises Ukraine's territorial integrity. These remarks have raised alarms in Kyiv and among NATO allies, as they potentially undermine Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression.
The study reveals that territorial integrity remains a non-negotiable priority for Ukrainians, with 57% agreeing that "any peace agreement that does not restore the full territorial integrity of Ukraine is doomed to failure." Despite Trump's claims of being a skilled negotiator, scepticism persists about whether his administration could achieve a deal acceptable to Ukraine and its Western allies.
The research underscores the delicate balance required to maintain Western unity in supporting Ukraine. As NATO and the EU closely monitor Trump's rhetoric, Ukraine remains steadfast in its demand for a peace deal that ensures sovereignty and territorial integrity.
"The Ukrainian public's cautious optimism reflects a mix of hope and pragmatism," Professor Onuch added. "As Trump and his new administration navigate these complex dynamics, the stakes for Ukraine and the West couldn't be higher."
