**Check Against Delivery**
Thank you, Andrew, for that introduction, and to the Melbourne Mining Club for the opportunity to speak today.
I acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the land we gather on and pay my respects to Elders past and present.
I would also like to acknowledge Melbourne Mining Club's co-patrons, Leigh Clifford AC and Hugh Morgan AC, whose leadership continues the legacy of Sir Arvi Parbo AC in promoting our industry.
It is a privilege to address a room filled with the leaders who drive our industry and our economy.
A Moment of Consequence
We meet today at a pivotal moment-one that will shape the course of our industry, our economy, and our nation for years to come.
The post-World War Two geopolitical order that has underpinned decades of prosperity is shifting beneath our feet.
Global supply chains-once reliable, but now fragile-are being redrawn.
Trade is no longer simply about supply and demand; it is a strategic weapon.
We have entered a new era of economic nationalism.
With every uncertain headline, with every protectionist push, the question before us becomes clearer: Will we retreat? Or will we fight?
For Australia, this is more than a challenge-it is an urgent call to action.
It is resilience that built this nation-through booms, through downturns, through world wars and economic crises.
Of course, the question is not whether we have the resilience – we have demonstrated that before, rather it is whether we have the resolve.
The resolve to fight for the policies that encourage:
Strength, not weakness.
Growth, not stagnation.
Progress, not decline.
Perhaps we can begin by acknowledging a fundamental truth: minerals are not merely commodities; they are the lifeblood of all modern economies.
We are heading into a period of greater uncertainty. The global economy is weak and vulnerable to downside risk, and inflationary pressures persist.
While commodity markets are accustomed to commercial volatility, this geopolitical uncertainty adds a new dimension of risk to investment.
If the world's major economies slow, the effects will be felt in Australia.
Recent escalations in tariffs and trade tensions signal a shift towards a more fragmented global economy-one where the free flow of goods and capital cannot be taken for granted.
Against this backdrop, our industry is bracing for a more volatile operating environment.
This is why we must be in the strongest possible position to weather these disruptions.
That means having the right policy settings to encourage investment, lift productivity, and ensure that Australia remains the supplier of choice for key markets.
It means rejecting policies that add uncertainty to an already uncertain world.
Mining has always faced peaks and troughs-but how we prepare in times of strength determines how well we withstand the downturns.
Now is the time to reinforce our economic foundations.
Now is the time to lead – not lag - through the coming storm.
Because if we don't, others will.
A Path Forward: Reversing the Trend, Restoring Our Advantage
Despite the challenges, there is cause for optimism.
Australia has the resources, the expertise, and the global reputation to remain a powerhouse in the world economy.
But Australia must act now.
The trend is clear: while mining continues to be the backbone of the economy, investment is stalling.
Australia is living off its past investments, rather than building for the future.
Mining has accounted for 30% of Australia's capital investment over the last decade, yet real net capital stock has plateaued at a time when it should be surging.
Nominal investment growth is largely being driven by rising project costs and sustaining capital-not by new project development.
Foreign direct investment in Australian mining from OECD sources has collapsed-falling from an aggregate of US$50 billion in 2013 to just US$7.5 billion in 2022.
Meanwhile, Canada-our direct competitor for mining capital-has maintained strong OECD investment flows, with new FDI into Canadian mining exceeding US$10 billion in both 2021 and 2022.
We hear a lot about the value of projects coming through the pipeline, but the reality is that only 1 in 20 major resource projects in Australia progresses from feasibility to final investment decision each year. And even for those that do, S&P estimates that the average lead time to production is now 18 years-up from just 13 years for mines that started 15 years ago. The system is slowing, not improving.
Australia is a resource-rich country-but the investment environment is making us a riskier bet for capital.
And in a sector where investors have choices, money is mobile.
On a recent trip overseas, I met with a global investor who put it bluntly:
"Why would we look to invest in Australia right now? Your energy costs are too high, your construction costs are out of control, productivity is going backwards, and your regulatory environment is unpredictable. It's not worth it."
That is the perception we are up against.
The Gap Between Words and Actions
We hear a lot from our policymakers about the importance of our industry-how vital mining is to our economic strength, our sovereignty, our security.
But too often, the rhetoric does not match reality.
The Prime Minister has rightly acknowledged several times during this term that a robust minerals sector is essential to our national economic resilience.
And yet, we see policy settings that actively undermine our success.
This is not just about policy misalignment.
It is about risk.
Because once investment leaves, it does not easily return.
Productivity: The Defining Issue for Australia's Future
If there is one issue that should define this federal election, it is productivity.
It is the single driver of long-term living standards.
It is what determines whether businesses invest, wages rise, and Australia is a competitive trading nation.
And right now, we are falling behind.
Labor productivity growth in Australia has flatlined at 0.4 per cent a year over the last decade. GDP per hour worked is no higher today than it was in 2016. That is nearly a decade of lost progress.
The result? Lower real wages. Slower growth. A cost base that keeps rising.
There is no issue more important to Australia's future, yet it remains an afterthought in the national debate.
This cannot continue.
Whoever forms government after the election must put productivity at the very top of the agenda.
What Productivity Really Means
Productivity is not about working harder or longer-it is about working smarter.
It is about making every hour of work more valuable by creating an environment where business can thrive, innovation is rewarded, and people have the skills to adapt and succeed.
There is one sector that has always driven productivity growth in this country: mining.
Mining is the most capital-intensive, high-output, and globally competitive industry we have.
It has been the engine of national income growth, the largest driver of investment, and the foundation of our export strength.
Yet, despite this, policy settings are holding the industry back at a time when we should be unlocking its full potential.
Any government serious about lifting productivity must start with the industry that delivers it at scale: mining.
The Industrial Relations Threat
This means fixing the industrial relations system.
The mining sector has operated for years under a framework that encourages flexibility, rewards hard work and delivers strong wages.
Yet now, we are seeing a concerted effort to dismantle this system, dragging us back to an era of strikes, inefficiency, and industrial confrontation.
We have seen this story before. In the 1980s, industrial disputes crippled the Pilbara and other regions forcing a painful reset of workplace relations.
It took strong leadership-from government, industry, and unions working together to restore stability and ensure that Australian mining remained globally competitive.
We now risk going back to those days, except this time, we may not get a second chance.
If the government wants sustained wage growth and long-term investment, it cannot be designing an IR system that increases costs and uncertainty, making both harder to achieve.
Other Challenges
Lifting productivity also means taking tax reform seriously.
Continued speculation about increased resource taxes is fuelling sovereign risk concerns among investors.
More tax does not drive productivity rather, it drives investment offshore.
Investment decisions are made with long-term confidence in mind. Stability in tax policy is not just desirable; it is essential.
But tax stability alone is not enough. The length and complexity of project approvals in Australia have become a major barrier to investment.
The reality is stark-a mining project here takes twice as long to commence as it does in Canada.
Therefore, it should be no surprise that investors will choose Canada. It is that simple.
There is an urgent need to streamline approval processes, reduce duplication across jurisdictions, and establish a clear regulatory pathway for major resource projects.
Securing Investment in Critical Minerals
At the same time, we must focus on the industries that will drive productivity in the decades ahead.
One of the greatest opportunities before us is Australia's role in supplying the world with critical minerals.
The minerals industry is key to achieving a net zero carbon future.
Without mining and minerals processing, there is no clean energy transition.
These minerals - including copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, rare earths-are essential for the technologies that will power the future: electric vehicles, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing.
But without the right policy settings, investment in critical minerals will go elsewhere.
Governments around the world are aggressively incentivising new supply chains.
We must ensure that Australia is a foundation player in the global supply chain.
The Way Forward: Securing Australia's Future in Mining
The world is not short on demand for minerals-but investment is cautious. Capital will only flow to countries that provide the right environment to do business.
Energy should be Australia's greatest advantage.
Yet somehow, we have ended up with some of the highest industrial energy costs in the developed world.
High energy costs are killing our competitiveness.
They are driving investment away from Australia, forcing businesses to shut down, and weakening our manufacturing and resources sectors.
Electricity prices in Australia have tripled in the past decade.
Gas prices have quadrupled.
And unlike the United States-where prices increased but are now showing signs of stabilising-Australian energy costs remain stubbornly high.
Industrial users are being forced to consider shutting down or moving offshore.
We are seeing the consequences already.
Orica-the world's largest provider of explosives and chemicals for mining-has warned that energy prices in Australia are so high they may increase investment in the United States instead.
Incitec Pivot shut its Australian fertiliser plants in 2022 because of high gas costs.
Plastics manufacturer Qenos has collapsed.
And now, Oceania Glass-Australia's only glass manufacturer, employing 260 people at its Dandenong plant in Melbourne's outer suburbs-has shut its doors after 169 years of operation.
Victoria: The Warning for the Rest of the Country
My home state of Victoria was once a powerhouse of manufacturing-a state that built industries, drove exports, and created high-paying jobs.
Now?
Victoria is fast running out of its low-cost gas supply and planning to shut down its century-long Latrobe Valley brown coal advantage-without a viable, affordable replacement in sight.
The state seems blissfully unaware of the rapid decline of its foundational energy strengths.
Plans to develop offshore wind are in disarray. Land conflicts over solar, wind, and transmission projects are stalling progress.
And after discouraging gas development for over a decade, Victoria is now pushing for expensive LNG import terminals and seeking costly gas from northern states-when it could have developed its own supply.
This is a warning for the rest of Australia.
Energy must be an advantage, not a liability-but right now, Australia is making it more difficult to justify new investment.
That must change.
The Minerals Council of Australia has been warning for years that policy settings must encourage investment, not drive it away.
These challenges are not new, nor are they hypothetical-they are real, they are urgent, and they demand action now.
Conclusion: Mining's Role in the Future
Ladies and gentlemen, the choices our leaders make today will shape Australia's future.
Mining has always been at the heart of our national prosperity, and it must continue to be.
But prosperity is not guaranteed.
Investment is not guaranteed.
Competitiveness is not guaranteed.
We cannot afford to be complacent-not when other nations are moving faster, cutting red tape, and making it easier to do business.
We cannot afford to be silent-not when the decisions being made today will determine whether Australia remains a mining powerhouse or becomes a nation that watches from the sidelines.
The solutions are clear.
We need policy settings that encourage investment, not drive it away.
We need an industrial relations system that promotes productivity, not punishes it.
We need energy policy that makes us competitive, not unviable.
Australia should be the world's preferred mining and investment destination, as it used to be – a country that backs its resources sector, embraces opportunity, and secures its future prosperity.
But this will not happen unless we demand it.
Everyone in this room has a role to play.
The messages we send-to policymakers, to the media, to investors-matter.
We must be relentless in making the case for a globally competitive, investment-friendly, and productivity-driven mining sector.
Because if we don't, who will?
We have built one of the strongest mining industries in the world. Now, we must fight to keep it that way.
Australia has never been a country that settles for second best. We shouldn't start now.
Let's make sure that message is heard.
Thank you.
