Friedrich Merz's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has captured the highest proportion of votes in Germany's election on Sunday. The celebrations could be short-lived, though, as the task of forming a government now looms.
Author
- Matt Fitzpatrick
Professor in International History, Flinders University
As it stands, Germany's public broadcaster has projected Merz's CDU and its Christian Social Union (CSU) counterpart in Bavaria to win 208 seats in the Bundestag (28.5%). The ousted Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been reduced to 121 seats (16.5%), while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved its biggest-ever result of 151 seats (20.7%).
Other minor parties have failed to meet the 5% threshold in the proportional German parliamentary system , limiting the possible options for a government to take shape.
Merz's party did lift its vote share compared to its record low in 2021 . And German voters have given him the opportunity to attempt forming a governing coalition.
However, his electoral strategy may have made it harder to solve a number of problems, many of them of his own making. Here are four key things his victory has failed to do, which could make governing in Germany more difficult.
1. Stem the number of voters to the far right
With the German economy in the doldrums, Merz would have easily won on the question of economic management alone. Strangely, however, his electoral strategy mimicked the anti-migrant rhetoric of the far-right AfD.
By noisily electioneering on the policy of stemming the flow of migrants and insisting at every opportunity that migrants (particularly those from the Middle East) were a threat to the German way of life, Merz has given legitimacy to what had been fringe policies.
Yet, the election results show that the Germans who were motivated to vote for an anti-migrant party went for the most virulent version (the AfD) - particularly in the old East Germany - and not Merz's centre-right imitation.
Instead of stealing votes from the AfD, Merz has substantially contributed to the record showing of the far-right party by making immigration - and radical approaches to it - a central issue.
The smiles on the face of the AfD leadership after the election tell the story. The party may not be in government, but its policies will in all likelihood be pursued by a Merz government.
2. Exclude the left from German politics
The day before the election, Merz railed against " green and left crazies " and insisted "there is no longer left politics in Germany".
The SPD vote did sink dramatically off the back of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ineffectual and lacklustre term in office. But the left-wing Die Linke party (The Left) rode the wave of anti-AfD and anti-Merz sentiment to return from the wilderness with its best election showing in almost a decade.
In particular, a rousing speech by Die Linke leader Heidi Reichinneck helped lift the mood on the left in response to Merz's anti-migrant stance. Die Linke is back in the Bundestag, at least for another term.
3. Create a governing coalition
Merz has spent the past few weeks breaking taboos by working with the German far right and roundly abusing his opponents using the kind of intemperate language rarely seen in German politics. Now, he is faced with building a governing coalition.
He has painted himself into a corner. He has called the Greens party and Die Linke "crazies". And his closest ideological ally, the Free Democrats (FDP), appear to have failed to reach the 5% hurdle to enter parliament after voters punished the party for effectively blowing up the last coalition government.
So shockingly poor was the FDP's result, its leader, Christian Lindner, has offered his resignation .
Previously, a "grand coalition" between the CDU and SPD has been able to form a stable government. This was especially so under former-Chancellor Angela Merkel, the longtime CDU leader.
The centre-left SPD vote might just be large enough to form a coalition government with Merz's CDU. Whether the SPD would do so after being shocked in the past few weeks by Merz's dalliances with the far right remains an open question.
Scholz, the SPD leader, has categorically ruled out serving in a Merz cabinet. Whether he might resign to make way for a grand coalition remains to be seen, should one prove mathematically possible.
That leaves only the far-right AfD - the only other party potentially large enough to allow Merz to form a two-party coalition government. Merz has ruled out a CDU-AfD coalition as a threat to German democracy.
Merz will either have to radically revise his attitudes towards the parties to his left or break his word not to allow the far right into government. If he did the latter, he may very well become Germany's 21st century Franz von Papen , the Weimar Republic-era leader widely viewed as having helped usher the Nazis to power in the 1930s.
4. Exorcise the ghost of Angela Merkel
Merz's career has been marked by his inability to overcome Merkel and her vision of the CDU as the umbrella party of the democratic centre.
After dragging his party to the right, Merz has posted an electoral result lower than anything Merkel ever gained .
Even if his party is able to cobble together a coalition government, Merz will still sit in the shadow of his more democratically popular, centrist predecessor.
Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is the President of the History Council of South Australia.
