MLA Unveils 2025 Global Market Opportunities & Risks

Domestic Australian market:

• Australians continue to be among the world's biggest per capita consumers of red meat, with the domestic market being the single largest market for Australian beef and sheepmeat.

• Cost of living pressures have seen Australians shift their dining-out habits through both trading down to more affordable options but still splurging at premium establishments on occasion. Retail shopping has seen a similar increase in demand for cheaper products such as mince, but also some growth in sales of various "affordable premium" options, particularly as an alternative to dining out.

• There are opportunities to increase red meat consumption among Australia's 'CALD (Culturally And Linguistically Diverse)' communities, which make up a growing proportion of the population.

United States (US):

• In 2024, the US imported a record volume of red meat, including significantly greater volumes from Australia, due largely to a domestic production shortage.

• The past year consistently saw double-digit growth for grassfed beef in retail from increased availability and presence of grassfed beef in stores. To US consumers, grassfed beef is seen as a 'better for me' and more natural option compared to conventional beef. The US was also the largest market for lamb, with more restaurants across different foodservice segments adopting lamb to cater for and target changing patron demographics.

China Mainland:

• Australia's market access to mainland China improved in 2024, with temporary export suspensions lifted on six plants and two new plants approved for export.

• In response to slower economic growth, consumers have become more cautious in their discretionary spending. Demand for Australian red meat softened, with 2024 volumes down on 2023 across all species except for offal.

• Despite this, long-term import demand drivers are strong. China's affluent consumer base is forecast to continue to expand, along with a growing appreciation for premium red meat products, not just for special occasions but, increasingly, for every day at home.

Japan:

• Japan was the second largest beef export market for Australia in 2024. However, the proportion of lower-value products increased, impacted by sticky inflation, a weakened Yen and slow real wage growth continuing to weigh on Japanese consumer spending.

• Despite the challenges, Australia has benefited from softened competition from the US, increasing our market share in the imported beef market. A surge in inbound tourism to record levels supported foodservice operators, particularly casual and mid-range restaurants where Australian beef is commonly used.

Korea:

• Australian beef exports to the Korean market were strong in 2024, triggering the beef safeguard volume earlier than usual. Despite challenges, Korea was the third largest beef export market for Australia in 2024, up 6% from the previous year.

• Long known for their love of beef, more Koreans are also enjoying sheepmeat, particularly through foodservice. Whilst Korea has been among Australia's fastest-growing lamb markets in recent years, 2024 saw softer demand due to cost of living pressures.

A significantly larger proportion of Australian red meat was shipped to destinations outside of the top three markets in 2024 (47% versus 41% in 2019), driven by the young, expanding and increasingly affluent consumer base in regions such as Middle East and North Africa (and South-East Asia.

• In MENA, more consumers are coming to appreciate the eating quality benefits of premium red meat, increasing demand for packaged meat products at modern retail for home consumption. On 6 November 2024 the Australian Government and the United Arab Emirates signed the bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), delivering another significant enhancement to Australia's market access in the region.
• South-East Asia has enjoyed all-time high volumes of Australian red meat in 2024. Increasing red meat consumption is being driven by growing interest in dining out at not only Western-style cuisine restaurants but also Chinese, Japanese and Korean cuisine establishments. Tourists are a significant contributor to red meat consumption, and arrivals are forecast to increase around 30% on 2024 to 154 million by 2028.
• Australia's red meat exports to the United Kingdom have significantly increased in the short time since the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (A-UK FTA) came into effect from 31 May 2023. The growth has been remarkable, particularly considering the long-term dominance of other suppliers such as Ireland, a long-held preference for domestic product at retail and low familiarity with grainfed beef.
• Trade agreement discussions between Australia and the EU will continue, with Australia determined to ensure any agreement reached will be a significant advance in access for Australian red meat.