A significant gap in policy ambition exists between globally agreed temperature goals and the emissions reductions of national climate targets, according to a new report on countries covered by the OECD's International Programme for Action on Climate (IPAC).
According to the 4th edition of the Climate Action Monitor, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) currently commit to a collective reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of only 14% by 2030, compared to 2022 levels, in countries covered by IPAC which produce over 80% of global GHG emissions. This is well short of the estimated 43% global emission reduction needed to limit global warming to 1.5° Paris Agreement goal according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Source: OECD (2024) "Climate Action Monitor" and UNEP 2024 Emission Gap Report
The report also points to the risk that net-zero targets may not be fulfilled, noting that most current commitments lack a legal basis on which to be enforced. As of August 2024, 110 countries have pledged a net-zero target for 2050 and beyond, covering about 88% of global GHG emissions. However, only 27 countries and the EU, representing 16% of global GHG emissions, have enshrined these targets into law.
"Our 2024 Climate Action Monitor underscores the growing impact of climate-related hazards and confirms that countries' emission reduction pledges are not consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. "Making real progress on the net-zero transition requires more ambitious mitigation targets and effective implementation".
The report also highlights the recent slowdown in countries' climate policy action across the countries that produce nearly two thirds of total greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF), which tracks both the number of adopted national climate policies and their stringency, national climate mitigation action only expanded by 1% and 2% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, compared to an average of 10% per year between 2010-21. This trend suggests that there could be a significant implementation gap where even the current modest GHG emissions reduction targets may not be achieved by 2030.
With 2024 on track to set new records for global warming, the detrimental effects of rising temperatures, changing rain patterns and other climate-related hazards are being seen on food systems, with croplands increasingly exposed to agricultural droughts. Many countries have observed a notable decline in soil moisture levels on croplands during 2019-23 when compared to the reference period of 1981-2010, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies to enhance resilience in farming practices. Heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes have raged across the globe, destroying lives and livelihoods and the population exposed to extreme temperatures is growing rapidly. During the same period, the countries covered in the report experienced on average an additional 30 days of above-average temperatures compared to the baseline period.
