Developing a methodology to measure persistent child poverty using survey and admin data supports the provision of the initial persistent child poverty baseline estimates, which will support target setting in late 2024. It outlines the conceptual, methodological, and analytical work done to produce these estimates. While Stats NZ is confident in the data and methodology behind these estimates, they are intended as a guide for target setting and are not official statistics.
This paper covers:
- the persistent poverty definition and target population, and rationale for them
- a description of the methodology developed for the persistent poverty measure
- a quality assessment of the persistent child poverty baseline estimates, and the data sources used to produce them.
Regular reporting of persistent child poverty will commence in 2027, for the 2025/2026 financial year; the persistent poverty methodology is not final, and Stats NZ will continue refine it until then. Further technical documentation will be made available once regular reporting begins to support the ongoing delivery of persistent poverty rates and provide information on the finalised methodology.
Readers should note that, throughout this paper, poverty based on the current year only is referred to as 'cross-sectional', as it relies on and reflects data collected in a single year. The intention is to succinctly and clearly distinguish it from persistent poverty, which utilises longitudinal data.
'Persistent child poverty baseline estimates: October 2024' presents the baseline persistent poverty estimates for the total population of children, and by ethnic group and disability status.
'Persistent child poverty baseline estimates - supplementary tables' includes further information on the quality of the data used to prepare the baseline estimates of persistent child poverty. These supplementary tables are referenced throughout this paper.
Download the PDF of the full paper and both Excel files below.
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Ryan Sutcliffe
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ISBN 978-1-991307-30-9
