Beirut, 25 January 2025--Syria's economy has shrunk by nearly two thirds, its currency continues to tumble, and half of its population now lives in extreme poverty, according to a stark new report released today by two United Nations agencies. The analysis paints an alarming picture of a collapsing country at a critical juncture, yet holds out the prospect of recovery if bold reforms and decisive international support are swiftly enacted.
Conducted jointly by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the report entitled "Syria at the crossroads: towards a stabilized transition", finds that the country's GDP has plummeted by 64% since the conflict began in 2011. The Syrian pound lost around two thirds of its value in 2023 alone, pushing consumer inflation to 40% in 2024. Exports, once a vital economic engine, now lean heavily on basic goods such as food, while trade in industrial goods has declined substantially.
"Syria has been in crisis for nearly fifteen years, and every aspects of life in it has been eroded," said ESCWA Executive Secretary Rola Dashti. "Our report underscores the urgency of rebuilding not just bricks and mortar, but also trust, governance, and social cohesion."
A Humanitarian Catastrophe
Beyond the economic freefall, the humanitarian situation in Syria remains dire. As many as 16.7 million people-over two thirds of the country's population-require some form of aid. Seven million are internally displaced, and chronic malnutrition is on the rise. The report ranks Syria 158th out of 160 countries on the 2024 ESCWA Global Development Challenges Index, citing deep-rooted governance issues, environmental degradation, and widespread poverty.
"Food insecurity is rampant, health-care systems are crumbling, and entire communities have been uprooted," remarked Dashti. "This is one of the world's most protracted humanitarian crises, and our findings make clear it could get worse if immediate steps are not taken. Syria's recovery is not just about rebuilding cities, "it is about investing in people, restoring faith in institutions, and creating conditions where families can return to normal lives."
Paths to Recovery
Despite the gloom, the report outlines a recovery scenario wherein reconstruction is prioritized, governance reforms take root, and sufficient international aid materializes. Under these conditions, Syria's GDP could expand by an average of 13% per year between 2024 and 2030. Such growth, however, would only bring the country's output to 80% of its pre-war level by decade's end, while GDP per capita would reach just half of its 2010 figure.
In the view of UN analysts, reaching full pre-war GDP would require an additional six years of consistent 5%, pushing the timeline to 2036. Restoring GDP per capita to its 2010 level would take until 2041, assuming a 7.5% annual growth rate. A more ambitious goal of reaching a per capita GDP of $5,000 by 2035-roughly half the current level of neighboring Türkiye-would require a breakneck 20% annual growth rate over the next decade.
Bleak Alternatives
The report does not shy away from scenarios in which Syria's outlook remains grim. Prolonged instability, fraught governance, and insufficient funding could result in continued stagnation and persistent poverty. An even more dire trajectory, marked by new waves of conflict and further fragmentation, would diminish GDP by an average of 7.68% annually between 2024 and 2030. Under that scenario, the humanitarian crisis and regional security challenges would deepen.
The report also spotlights the impact of Syria's fate on its neighbors. Stabilizing Syria could provide a boon to countries such as Jordan and Lebanon, with re-opened borders and restored trade routes boosting combined GDP in those nations by an estimated $0.6 billion in 2025 and $1.8 billion in 2026. But the reverse is also true: continued turmoil in Syria threatens to exacerbate illicit trade, strain resources for refugees, and undermine wider regional stability.
Accordingly, the report urges sweeping governance reforms, meaningful private sector engagement, and international aid that goes beyond emergency relief to support systemic economic rejuvenation. Infrastructure, agriculture, industry, and finance all need revamping under inclusive policies that reduce the potential for renewed conflict.
Rebuilding Trust and Peace
Among the overarching recommendations, the report calls for rebuilding trust in Syrian institutions through reconciliation efforts, accountability measures, and security sector reforms-steps the authors believe are essential to any lasting peace. The document also emphasizes the importance of regional and international support, including targeted sanctions relief and collaborative economic endeavors.
"This is a critical juncture for Syria. Either it advances down a path of reconstruction and reconciliation-or risks plunging into deeper chaos. The stakes for the country, and for the region, could not be higher," Dashti concluded.
