IPCC reports gather the latest scientific insights for world leaders and governments. Professor Robbert Biesbroek is one of those contributing to the next IPPC report's main thread. What is in store?
The IPCC (in full: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) published six major reports since 1990. Each report is the result of a six-year effort in which scientists work to achieve as concise and relevant a review of the state of the climate and climate science as possible. 'The resulting report is designed to feed governments with scientifically substantiated insights, in particular for future climate summits', says Professor Robbert Biesbroek, coordinating lead author on the European chapter in the sixth climate report. Biesbroek is a professor of Public Governance and Climate Change Adaptation with the Public Administration and Policy group.
Biesbroek attended the first meeting in preparation for the seventh report in Malaysia from 9 to 13 December. He is prohibited from divulging information about the discussion during his participation, which is why he spoke with an editor prior to his departure to discuss the process and topics under discussion.
Damage as a result of climate change
'What is commonly known as the IPPC report actually comprises three reports produced by three different taskforces, each with their own topics', Biesbroek explains. 'I will be contributing to the outline of the report on the consequences of climate change and the different adaptation options we have. Consider, for example, the damage caused by weather extremes.' Another task force focuses on natural sciences behind the climate and climate change, and a group investigates the policy options to mitigate climate change.
What does Biesbroek expect from the discussions? 'Overshoot is a topic that will likely be at the centre of everyone's focus. In other words, what happens if we surpass the one-and-a-half-degree warming for a while? A chain reaction may result, with, ultimately, coral reefs perishing or glaciers disappearing.'
This brings Biesbroek to the next central topic of discussion: loss and damages. 'One of the key long-term consequences of global warming is rising sea levels. A small island state, such as Vanuatu in the South Pacific Ocean, could eventually disappear underwater. Who can they hold responsible, and how?' The country recently took the case to the International Court in The Hague to ensure that non-compliance with climate agreements has legal ramifications.'
'An example closer to home is the flood in Limburg in previous years. The question arises of whether insurance companies can cover these extremes. In the state of Florida, insuring one's house against hurricane damage is nearly impossible for normal citizens. Is that fair? Doesn't that put the burden of climate damage on vulnerable people? The issue of equity is becoming increasingly relevant.'
Weather extremes and techno-fixes
According to Biesbroek, weather extremes are also relevant to the report on the climate system. 'Extremes are increasing and difficult to model. That makes their ramifications more challenging to predict, especially when disruptions amplify other risks. A period of extreme heat may increase the wildfire hazard, but it may also dry out the soil to such a degree that rainwater is no longer absorbed, and flood risks increase.'
Small island state Vanuatu in the South Pacific Ocean could be flooded. Who can they hold responsible?
The discussion on technological solutions for mitigation is taking on new forms. 'Technology, for example, to dampen the effects of solar radiation, such as injecting reflective particles into the atmosphere. The issue remains how much attention should be spent on such techno-fixes because they come with many challenges; geopolitical issues, for example.'
Biesbroek and his colleagues have submitted the outline of the next climate report to the IPCC. It will likely be officialised during the next plenary meeting of the organisation at the end of February 2025. 'After that, the writing process begins, starting with a search for authors willing to invest time and expertise voluntarily. Scientists from across the globe contribute to the report', Biesbroek explains. They have approximately three years of work ahead of them. If all goes as planned, the new report is expected to be released in 2028.
