Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows that half say they would do nothing if their choice for president doesn't win; nearly 1 in 5 would support legal challenges
A majority of New Jersey registered voters say they have faith in the legitimacy of the electoral process, whether looking back on 2020 or looking ahead, according to a special Rutgers-Eagleton Poll in partnership with NJ Advance Media and the Miller Center on Policing and Community Resilience at the Eagleton Institute of Politics.
Stark partisan differences prevail, however, with Republicans either disagreeing, or agreeing to a lesser extent, on election integrity last cycle and this cycle.
Sixty-seven percent of voters say President Joe Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020, versus 18% who feel he didn't and 15% who are unsure. Nearly all Democrats say Biden won fairly (96%). A majority of independents say the same (60%), though 4 in 10 in this group believe he either didn't (18%) or are unsure (22%). Republicans are mixed: 30% say he legitimately won, 46% say he didn't and 24% are unsure.
When it comes to 2024, 81% say they will accept the outcome of the presidential election regardless of whether their choice wins; 5% say they won't and 15% don't know how they feel. While solid majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans say they will accept the 2024 results, independents are about twice as likely and Republicans are about three times as likely as Democrats to say they are unsure.
"Even in New Jersey, often thought of as a solidly blue state, a notable minority of voters doubt the legitimacy of the 2020 election and are unsure if they will accept whatever happens on Nov. 5," said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. "New Jersey parallels public opinion nationally on this, and these seeds of doubt, both state and nationwide - while not the majority - point to why many voters feel apprehensive and unsettled about what Election Day, and the days and weeks after, might bring."
New Jersey voters are generally more trusting of the state's handling of the electoral process than they are the nation as a whole.
Jessica Roman
Director of data management and analysis at the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling
A majority of New Jersey voters, furthermore, have some level of confidence that votes cast in person in the Garden State (60% "very," 26% "somewhat") will be counted as voters intend in the Nov. 5 election. They say they feel similarly about votes cast in person throughout the nation, though to a slightly lesser degree (50% "very" and 33% "somewhat").
Absentee and mail-in ballots inspire less confidence than in-person voting: two-thirds of voters in the state are either "very" (40%) or "somewhat" (26%) confident that votes cast in New Jersey will be counted as voters intend, while 6 in 10 are either "very" (31%) or "somewhat" (30%) confident in votes cast throughout the U.S.
If their chosen candidate for president doesn't win, half of voters say they will simply do "nothing" (50%). This sentiment holds somewhat steady across Democrats (45%), Republicans (51%) and independents (55%).
Small numbers of voters say they will do a variety of activities if their choice doesn't win. Seventeen percent say they would support legal challenges; Republicans are especially likely to say this, at 25%, compared with 15% of Democrats and 13% of independents.
Eleven percent would volunteer for political or social causes; 9% would donate for or against a candidate, politician, issue or organization; and 8% would participate in a peaceful protest. All of these are more popular among Democrats than they are among Republicans.
Three percent say they would leave the country and less than 1% say they would participate in a nonpeaceful protest that may cause damage or harm; no significant differences by partisanship arise for either activity. Five percent say they would take some other kind of action.
"New Jersey voters are generally more trusting of the state's handling of the electoral process than they are the nation as a whole," said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at ECPIP. "However, voters in the Garden State maintain a level of skepticism around absentee and mail-in ballots here as compared with in-person voting. Democrats are more trusting in this process than their partisan counterparts, echoing the partisan divide in mail-in ballots seen in the last presidential election."
Results are from a statewide poll of 1,018 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from Oct. 15 to Oct. 22. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 929 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
