The Northern Territory is going to the polls this weekend. The incumbent Labor government is under serious challenge from a rejuvenated Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, led by Lia Finocchiaro. This is an election mainly about crime and the state of the economy, and neither issue is good for Labor.
Author
Rolf Gerritsen
Adjunct Professor, The Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University
Six months ago, it seemed inevitable Labor would lose - badly. However, the ascension of Eva Lawler to chief minister has rejuvenated the Labor government. She has tackled the main issues directly - from "tough love" and 200 more police on crime, to a pro-development stance on the economy.
The latter issue has led to approvals for the East Arm Industrial Precinct, Beetaloo Basin fracking and a large defence housing project at Lee Point. The Greens and Labor's left have been appalled.
The government has declared buffel grass a noxious weed and announced it will ban commercial gillnet fishing, but these measures weren't enough to placate the Greens.
Then there's the hot-button issue of whether territorians should be allowed to own a pet crocodile (no new pet permits would be granted under the government's crocodile management plan).
The Greens have not told their voters how to direct their preferences. This may weaken Labor's defence of some seats in greater Darwin-Palmerston. Nevertheless, Lawler has had an impressive campaign.
As in other elections around Australia, the proportion of pre-poll voting has increased. What that portends, other than that a third of voters have made up their minds and are not interested in the campaign, is difficult to assess.
Incidentally, this election (to my knowledge) is the first in Australian history where the leaders of both main parties are women. We live in exciting times.
The elephant in the room
The election campaign has been reminiscent of Basil Fawlty's invocation: "don't mention the war". Or, in this case, the territory government's level of indebtedness. The last budget said the NT would have a debt level of around $11.1 billion by the next budget.
During the election campaign, both Labor and the CLP have each made about a billion dollars' worth of promises. All these come without any compensating revenue-raising measures.
No major party candidate, let alone the leaders of the major parties, has mentioned the deficit. Indeed, the CLP is promising - via payroll tax concessions - to actually further weaken the NT fiscal situation.
There has been some clever campaigning. Labor has promised to introduce a Voluntary Assisted Dying bill in the next assembly, knowing full well that would wedge the CLP.
Mostly, the parties have ended as they started (with their housing policies), proposing new policy initiatives, or when the other party did so, announcing they would "match that". The level of cynicism (and possibly desperation) is breathtaking.
What might happen?
Predicting NT election results is difficult because of a paucity of opinion polls. Polling tends to be done only in Darwin (and sometimes Alice Springs).
We have not had any public information about polls since May. A November 2023 poll showed a clear swing to the CLP, but the more recent one revealed a slightly lesser swing against the government and with strong votes for independent candidates.
There are betting markets on the election, but these may have a skewed participant sample of people who normally wager on sports. As the healthy profits of betting companies indicate, these people may not be good judges of contests, sporting or political. For what it is worth, the latest SportsBet odds I have seen have the CLP on $1.42 and Labor on $2.60. That crowd has made up its mind.
I will venture a prediction on the outcome, even though I could end up with enough egg for an omelette on my face.
I don't think any seats outside Greater Darwin will change hands. The one possible exception is Daly, on the territory's northwest coast. Recently Labor won this off the CLP in a by-election. Because of inter-family violence in the western part of this electorate, Indigenous turnout may be down and the eastern part of the electorate will produce a CLP win.
I am prepared to guess that the swing to the CLP will be in the range of 4-6%. That will deliver the CLP the seats of Blain, Fong Lim and Port Darwin, taking their numbers in the assembly to ten.
However, as the swing to the CLP will probably be uneven, the swings in other seats could surprise. I would not be astonished if the CLP picks up supposedly safe Labor seats such as Drysdale (the chief minister's seat, on a margin of 6.1%), Karama (8.3%) and even Wanguri (17.3%).
Karama is crime central in Darwin's northern suburbs, and the longstanding and popular member for Wanguri, Nicole Manison, is retiring. So in that seat, the incumbent factor is absent.
The CLP will also pick up the rural seat of Goyder, leaving them with somewhere around 12 or 13 seats in the assembly. The two independents who will be elected, Yingiya Mark Guyula in Mulka (in northeast Arnhem Land) and Robyn Lambley in Araluen (in Alice Springs), can provide supply and confidence, even if the CLP does not have an absolute majority in the assembly.
After years in the construction doldrums since the Icthys LNG plant was built, next year the territory economy will start to grow rapidly. Predictions are for a 7% or more growth in state final demand.
The new government will receive the political benefit of this growth. This will be a good election to win.
Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
