One in three children projected to be Māori

Kotahi tamaiti i roto i te toru he Māori, e ai ki ngā matapae is this story in te reo Māori.

One in three children in Aotearoa are likely to identify as tamariki Māori by the early 2040s, as the country's population becomes increasingly ethnically diverse, Stats NZ said today.

"All major ethnic group populations are projected to grow over the next two decades, although some ethnic groups are expected to grow faster than others," population estimates and projections acting manager Rebekah Hennessey said.

Different growth rates reflect different age structures, birth and death rates, and patterns of migration, which impact how population groups change.

"Ethnic population changes at the youngest ages are a glimpse of how New Zealand's population will look in future."

Young Māori and Pacific populations

For the Māori and broad Pacific ethnic groups, population growth among the youngest age group (0-14 years) is expected to be higher than in the total population. The share of children who are Māori is projected to increase from 27 percent in 2018 to 33 percent (about 1 in 3 children) in 2043. In comparison, the total Māori population is projected to grow from 17 percent of New Zealand's population to 21 percent over the same period.

Within the Pacific ethnic group, the share of children is projected to increase from 14 percent in 2018 to 19 percent in 2043. The total Pacific population is projected to grow from 8 percent of New Zealand's population to 11 percent.

For both the Māori and Pacific ethnic groups, the projected growth in the share of children is driven by younger age structures combined with above-average birth rates.

Migration contributes to Asian population growth

A similar pattern exists for the broad Asian ethnic group. Among the youngest age group, projections from 2018 to 2043 indicate that the share of children within the Asian ethnic group will increase from 16 percent to 25 percent (about 1 in 4 children). The overall Asian population could increase from 16 percent to 24 percent of New Zealand's population over the same period. Unlike the Māori and Pacific ethnic groups, roughly 60 percent of the growth in the Asian population is projected to come from net migration, and about 40 percent by natural increase (births minus deaths).

Slower growth of 'European or Other' population

While the broad 'European or Other' ethnic population will still grow, it is projected to reduce its share of the total population from 70 percent in 2018 to 65 percent in 2043. However, the reduction is less pronounced in the 0-14 years age group, with a projected decrease in population share from 67 percent to 66 percent (about 2 in 3 children).

MELAA population also growing

The much smaller but broad MELAA ethnic group - people identifying with Middle Eastern, Latin American, and African ethnicities - is projected to increase its share of New Zealand's total population from 2 percent to 3 percent between 2018 and 2043. Among children, the share is projected to increase from 2 percent to 4 percent.

People increasingly identifying with multiple ethnicities

An increasing number of young people identifying with multiple ethnicities is another cause of growth in New Zealand's ethnic diversity.

"Children are more likely to have multiple ethnicities, often reflecting the different ethnicities of their mother and father," Mrs Hennessey said.

People are included in each ethnic group they identify with. As a result, ethnic group populations overlap and cannot be summed to the total New Zealand population.

About these projections

National ethnic population projections give an indication of the size and age structure of future populations by ethnic group usually living in New Zealand. They indicate possible outcomes based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. The projections consider current policy settings, COVID-19 impacts, and historical population trends. They do not try to anticipate future major policy changes which may affect population change.

ARIA has more information on the ethnic classifications used for this data.