Researchers from Wageningen University & Research, the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), and The Commodity Risk Management Expertise Centre (CORMEC) have developed a unique visualization method for financial markets using particle physics tools. With this tool, financial institutions or regulators can analyse all activity on the trade floor and dissect market manipulation, such as spoofing, in detail.
Spoofing is a form of manipulation where a trader intentionally manipulates the market by placing orders they intend to cancel, hoping prices move to improve their market position. One of the largest banks in America, JPMorgan, paid a record-breaking settlement of $920.2 million in 2020 for spoofing markets from 2008 to 2016. The order of the regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), outlined nine detailed examples how JPMorgan manipulated the market by this spoofing method.
The researchers used their new visualization method to analyse these spoofing examples in detail. The method uses data-analysis framework ROOT, which is originally designed for particle physics analysis by among others CERN. How does it work? The researchers visualised the limit order book (LOB) of the markets JPMorgan manipulated. The LOB shows all the prices traders are willing to buy or sell a financial product for, including the quantities they want to buy or sell.
Milli- or nanoseconds
Marjolein Verhulst, author of the article Unravelling the JPMorgan Spoofing Case Using Particle Physics Visualization Methods published in European Financial Management: 'The traditional way of looking at LOB data in close detail is to take snapshots. You can compare snapshots to taking pictures: each second, or minute, you take a picture of the market at that particular moment. However, you do not see what happens in between these pictures. For some research this is fine, but we are looking at markets with high-frequency traders who sometimes trade in milliseconds or nanoseconds. Market manipulations and high-frequency trading activities are often done at such a high pace, taking snapshots does not show what really happens.'
To illustrate, the spoof orders from the nine JPMorgan examples were visible in the LOB between 0.31 and 5.56 seconds. Marjolein: 'With the use of particle physics, we are now able to see in detail what happens in between the snapshots. We can now visualise all market activity and have the full picture.'
More understanding and research into spoofing and market manipulation
The researchers found several indicators from the JPMorgan case suggesting that in some circumstances, JPMorgan did not spoof to move the price, but to attract more traders to the market (attract liquidity). This has been unreported in science so far. With the new visualization method and deep dive into the JPMorgan case, the researchers hope to give more insights into spoofing and what happens to the markets when spoofing occurs. The researchers hope that this research helps all stakeholders, such as regulators, the exchange and market participants, to improve their understanding of spoofing and its effect on the markets. Moreover, they hope the visualization will function as a steppingstone for further research on market manipulation.
