Authorities should look to creative visions of the future when making contingency plans. At the University of Oslo, researchers have developed methods to explore people's thoughts about an uncertain future.
FLYING BUSES AND MORE LOVE? No one knows what the future holds, but in an exhibition in Oslo, researchers and curators at the museum have showcased examples of how Oslo residents envision their city in a few years. The image is a detail from the exhibition "Beyond Barcode". Photo: UiO.
Photo: UiO.
When researchers seek answers to their questions, they typically document and analyse what is called empirical data-information they have derived through observation, experiments, or work with historical sources. They are cautious about predicting the future because we have no experience with it, yet.
But at the University of Oslo, some researchers are committed to exploring the future.
"We don't just ask what people envision, but how they imagine the future," Bodhisattva Chattopadhyay says.
He leads Cofutures. It started as a research project but has now grown into a research organisation. Researchers from six countries work together on issues of climate, storytelling, artificial intelligence, and especially science fiction. Both the Norwegian and European research councils emphasise the innovative and socially relevant nature of the researchers' approaches by funding the projects, which they have done repeatedly.
"We collaborate with artists, and the results of the research are not just articles and books, but also fiction, films, dance performances, social media accounts, and an exhibition," Chattopadhyay explains.
Useful knowledge from the periphery
When we envision the future, what are our imaginations actually based on? Some of it might come from projections and scenarios that politicians use to plan for the future. In our time, these are filled with grim predictions about democracies in crisis, a planet ravaged by war and climate change, and an aging population requiring more care than the welfare state can provide.
"Many people are also strongly influenced by popular culture, particularly science fiction. But cultural expressions from the Western and English-speaking world dominate," Chattopadhyay points out.
Together with his research colleagues, he has held workshops for citizens from what he refers to as the periphery. From South America, Africa, Asia, and a small cold country in the north with 5.5 million inhabitants.
"The goal has been to create awareness that people envision the future differently depending on where they are in the world. And to demonstrate that it is indeed possible to envision alternatives to established notions."
To generate new knowledge, they have developed methods through workshops in 19 countries. They have met with artists, researchers, engineers, and UN employees, and most importantly, "ordinary people". They will soon make these methods accessible for everyone to use
Exhibition based on ideas from local youth
In Norway, the exhibition "Beyond Barcode" at the Oslo Museum is a tangible result of the research project. Here, the public can explore seven different future scenarios based on ideas from local Oslo residents.
"We maintained a completely open approach. During the workshops, we asked participants to envision the future in 30, 50 years, and even further into the future," says museologist and cultural researcher, Bergsveinn Thorsson.
He co-developed the exhibition with Chattopadhyay, graphic designers, scenographers, and museum staff. The researchers were careful not to impose any directives; this was intended to be a creative process.
"On the surface, it looks familiar, particularly visually. Participants envisioned skyscrapers and hovercrafts, much like what you see in popular science fiction films. But if you look closely, you can spot some radical ideas," Thorsson points out.
The underwater hotel "Havria" is one example. It is a luxury hotel, but for everyone. It can be a refuge for someone needing a break or for someone fleeing from war.
"Social differences became a central theme, and the scenarios are about removing the limitations that exist today. In many ideas, technology solves problems, for example through robots."
The fear of climate change shapes many ideas about the future. And in the exhibition, climate change is evident, for instance, with several scenarios set in an Oslo submerged underwater.
"But surprisingly, climate change is not the dominant theme - it's more about how we want to live after the climate crisis is resolved, or after we've adapted to different climates, for example with underwater public transport."
Museums showcase more than just the past
"At a museum, people often expect exhibitions about the past," says Annelise Bothner-By, who, along with Anders Bettum, is part of the curator team from Oslo Museum.
"So, when we exhibit the future, it may seem surprising, but museums are also concerned with preserving things for the future. And regardless of whether we work with the future or the past, the museum has a role in creating shared narratives that make experiences in our society relevant today."
The curator describes working closely with researchers as fun and rewarding
"Usually, you start with research and then create the exhibition afterwards to show what you've discovered. This is entirely different; here, the exhibition work was also part of the research process."
Bothner-By explains that the future scenarios excite everyone from nursery school children to grandmothers, and that the public gets to participate in thinking about and creating visions for the future of the capital.
"Here, the identity of the sender is less important; most of it is collectively created and constantly changing. The public can also contribute to changing the exhibitions," she says.
Researchers contribute to UN 2.0
In 1987, the UN released the report "Our Common Future", also known as the Brundtland Report. It brought sustainable development to the forefront of the international agenda and has been a foundation for the UN's work ever since. In 2021, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez launched a new vision called "Our Common Agenda".
"It's a recognition that the sustainable development goals and a common future haven't worked, and that the world needs to agree on a set of forward-looking ideas instead," Bodhisattva Chattopadhyay says.
The agenda includes 12 key proposals, one of which is to upgrade the UN.
And this is where Cofutures comes in. The researchers are now collaborating with UN Global Pulse, which is tasked with developing a UN 2.0 - a new and improved UN capable of functioning even better.
"We contribute to one of the five priority areas, which is called strategic foresight, and we do this by conducting workshops with our methods to achieve change and innovation across the UN system."
Imagining the future is a form of preparedness
According to Bergsveinn Thorsson, the methods the researchers have used in their work with the exhibition and in collaboration with the UN are part of a long tradition of involving the public in decision-making processes and policy making.
"But you often get the feeling that it isn't taken seriously," he says.
In facing an unknown future, it can be crucial to bring different people together to rethink how we would respond in a radically different situation.
"It's about getting people to consider what we really want to happen, but also to imagine a wildly improbable scenario and think about how we would handle it."
The researcher has often been met with laughter when he mentions science fiction as a resource.
"It might involve aliens and other fantastical elements, but what makes a sci-fi film or book good is that it speaks to our current times. We have visions of apocalypse and crisis, but what does a carbon-neutral society really look like? As it stands, we have a climate crisis, but we continue doing the same things as before. With our methods, we aim to break free from the patterns we are trapped in and explore new possibilities."
About the research
Cofutures started as a research project funded by the European Research Council in 2020. Today, it functions as an organisation and a network of projects and researchers all studying science fiction, climate, artificial intelligence, and the future. Bodhisattva Chattopadhyay is the leader of several of the projects. Bergsveinn Thorsson led the work on the exhibition Beyond Barcode as a postdoctoral fellow in the sub project Science Fictionality; he is now an associate professor at Bifröst University in Iceland.
