Without intervention, global plastic waste could double by 2050, a new machine learning study predicts. However, according to simulations by the study's authors, a mix of policy interventions could cut plastic waste by more than 90% and it could cut plastics-related emissions by a third. With UN treaty negotiations underway, these findings provide a crucial blueprint for tackling the plastic crisis. Plastic production has increased relentlessly for decades, leading to surging plastic waste generation and environmental mismanagement. As plastic degrades, it fragments into micro- and nano-plastics, which harm ecosystems globally – from the Arctic to deep ocean habitats – and pose significant health risks, including heightened cancer risks, cardiovascular disease, and reproductive issues. The plastic lifecycle also intensifies climate change through emissions from oil and gas extraction, production, and waste processing. The disproportionate plastic waste burden on the Global South and the frequency of situating plastic facilities near marginalized communities have sparked pressing environmental justice concerns. Recently, there has been global momentum to address these issues, culminating in a 2022 United Nations resolution to negotiate a legally binding treaty to curb plastic pollution.
To help in this effort, Samuel Pottinger and colleagues developed a novel machine learning model to forecast trends in global plastic production, trade, and waste management to 2050. They also simulated the effects of eight plausible policy interventions to mitigate waste and emissions. Pottinger et al. found that, without interventions, annual mismanaged plastic waste is anticipated to almost double by 2050, reaching 121 million metric tons. Concurrently, annual greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system are projected to rise by 37% over the same period. However, the authors also show that a combined policy intervention approach involving a production cap, recycling mandate, packaging tax, and infrastructure investment could reduce mismanaged plastic waste by up to 91% and decrease 2050 plastics-related emissions by about a third. "Collectively, these observations provide timely insight into how to maximize the impact of the UN plastic pollution treaty both as it is being drafted and over the longer time horizon of its implementation," write Pottinger et al. "It is clear from these results that, with sufficient political will, there is enough technical potential to dramatically reduce mismanaged plastic waste and meaningfully address some of the more insidious associated issues."
