With its strong economic growth for a western country, added to its desire to play a greater military role within NATO, Poland is poised to become a key player in Europe.
Author
- Alexandre Massaux
Ph.D. in international relations, Université de Toulon
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is having an impact on the entire European Union. Countries like France and Germany are struggling to adopt a coherent policy.
Once the driving forces behind the European Union, these two countries are now weakened by economic and political factors, both internationally and domestically. That makes them hesitate between helping Ukraine and maintaining their relations with Moscow.
With a doctorate in international relations, I study relations between NATO member countries and Russia, as well as the use of new technologies in defence and security. This has led to my work looking at Poland's increasing role in Europe's political scene since the conflict in Ukraine began.
Poland maintains its economic growth
Over the past decade, Poland has had one of the highest economic growth rates in the European Union, with GDP rising by more than five per cent for many years, both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
For the second quarter of 2024, the country recorded the highest increase in GDP in the EU compared to the previous quarter, at +1.5 per cent.
While most European countries are stagnating, Poland is maintaining its rate of economic development.
At the same time, Warsaw has been active on international issues.
The Three Seas Initiative , launched in 2016, aims to ensure the economic development of Central Europe through co-operation in the transport, energy and digitalization sectors. This is a tool of "soft power" economic and political influence, which the Polish government is now using to increase its clout in Central Europe.
Countries united in the past
In 2020, the country also initiated the Lublin Triangle between Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine to deter Russian activism. The objective of this informal forum is to co-ordinate security and defence actions in the three countries. It is also working to support Ukraine's entry into NATO.
The conflict in Ukraine in 2022 has had a negative impact on the role of the Triangle, which was initially intended to deter an all-out Russian attack on Ukraine. Yet the Triangle is still serving as an informal discussion forum. It's also worth noting that the Triangle has historical symbolism.
Poland and Lithuania have been united in the past, in the Republic of the Two Nations, a state that existed from the 16th to the 18th centuries. This territory covered a large part of Central Europe, including Poland, Lithuania, Belarus and present-day Ukraine. This history should not be overlooked.
One of Europe's leading military forces
Poland has taken on a dominant role in European defence. In 2024, with an increase of four per cent, it is expected to have the highest defence spending as a percentage of its GDP within NATO. In comparison, the United States is expected to spend 3.38 per cent of its GDP.
In 2023, Warsaw undertook a reform of the Polish army. The aim was to turn the country into Europe's leading military power, with the largest army in the European Union. The goal: an active army of 300,000 soldiers by 2035. According to NATO estimates for 2024 , Poland's active forces have 216,000 soldiers, making it NATO's third-largest army after the U.S. and Turkey.
Until 2022, the Polish army was smaller than those of France and Germany, but Poland now leads both France (204,700 soldiers) and Germany (185,600 soldiers). This represents a significant reversal.
Stagnation, instability in France and Germany
Recent elections in France, both European and legislative, show the rise of radical political forces on both the left and the right.
This is creating uncertainty about France's future and political direction and illustrates a weariness with President Emmanuel Macron, who has been in power since 2017. Public finances and, above all, public debt, has added to this uncertainty.
Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse of recent decades, is also slowing down. Economic growth is currently almost non-existent: in 2023, Germany experienced a recession with a 0.3 per cent drop in GDP. Based on European Commission figures, growth is expected to be 0.1 per cent in 2024 and one per cent in 2025.
This situation is the result of a number of factors. One is dependence on Russian gas supplies , which provided German industries with cheaper energy. The conflict in Ukraine has put an end to this supply source (at least in terms of direct trade) and has had an impact on economic productivity.
By 2023, 52.3 per cent of German electricity consumption will come from renewable sources. However, this is not enough to meet the energy needs of industry.
Weaknesses to overcome
But the weaknesses of France and Germany in no way erase those of Poland.
Politically, the country is polarized between the centrist Civic Coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the conservative Law and Justice party of former Polish leader Jarosław Kaczyński. Both parties agree, however, on the goal of making Poland a new regional power that would be capable of taking on Russia and playing a role in European affairs.
Poland's main weakness is its dependence on subsidies from the European Union . Along with Hungary, the country is the main beneficiary of the European Union's budget. This situation reduces Poland's ability to pursue policies independently and shows that its economy is still dependent on western Europe.
It remains to be seen how U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's second administration will influence this Polish development. The more isolationist and less pro-Ukraine turn of American Republicans under Trump could push Poland to accelerate rearmament to offset the risk of a drop in American military support.
Alexandre Massaux ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
