New polling shows Liberal candidate for Brisbane, Trevor Evans, is set to lose the federal seat of Brisbane at the upcoming election, with the Coalition's nuclear energy policy identified as a key factor driving voters away.
A uComms poll of 1,184 Brisbane voters commissioned by Liberals Against Nuclear found Evans losing the seat, with the nuclear policy significantly damaging his chances.
"This polling confirms what we've been warning about – Trevor Evans will lose Brisbane unless the Liberal Party dumps its nuclear policy," said Andrew Gregson, spokesperson for Liberals Against Nuclear.
52.4% of Brisbane voters said the Liberal-National Party's proposal to build seven government-owned nuclear reactors made them less likely to vote for Trevor Evans and the Coalition.
Critically, the poll found that even among LNP voters, one in four (27%) said the nuclear policy made them less likely to support the party. Worse still, among undecided voters – those the Liberals must win over – 42% said the nuclear policy pushed them away from the LNP while only 27% said it made them more likely to vote LNP.
The poll shows Evans currently securing just 32.1% of the primary vote, with the Greens' Stephen Bates at 24.2% and Labor's Madonna Jarrett at 23.2%. When preferences are distributed, Evans loses to either the Greens 52% to 48% or to Labor by an even wider margin of 56% to 44%.
"To form Government, the Liberals must win Brisbane and seats like it across the country. To do that, candidates like Trevor Evans must attract undecided voters. The nuclear policy is pushing them away. The only way to fix this is to immediately drop the nuclear policy," Gregson said.
"Every day that the party persists with this $600 billion nuclear plan is another day that Trevor Evans' chances of winning Brisbane diminish. If the Liberal leadership is serious about forming government, they need to act now to win seats like Brisbane by dropping this toxic policy."
The polling was conducted by uComms on March 20, 2025, using a self-completed and open-ended automated SMS and voice polling methodology, with results weighted for population distribution.
