Timor-Leste has had much to celebrate recently. August 30 marked 25 years since the Popular Consultation - or "The Referendum", as many call it - when more than 98% of the population braced themselves against brutal repression to vote for their freedom.
Author
Shannon Brincat
Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of the Sunshine Coast
Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, recently visited. This was a bigger deal than one might think: he's a hero in Timorese eyes because of his international advocacy for their self-determination when he was prime minister of Portugal. He spoke to the parliament, praising the people's "enormous courage and relentless determination".
This week, an even bigger hero visits the island: Pope Francis. This occasion is of profound cultural and religious significance for one the most predominantly Catholic countries in the world. More than 97% of the population is Catholic.
History of Catholic activism
Churches in Dili, mostly in Portuguese style, are immaculately kept. Graveyards are revered and often attended by family members who have lights installed around their plots.
Yet surprisingly, this Catholic convergence is only recent. When the Portuguese left in 1975, estimates suggest only 20-30% of the country was Catholic.
During the Indonesian occupation, this number changed drastically. For some, this was because of the role the church played as a "shield of the oppressed". Timorese beliefs of ancestor worship and animism also cohabited with Catholicism.
During the years of occupation and the resistance, the Catholic church often advocated for Timorese protections when others turned a blind eye or remained complicit.
Catholic priests and nuns sought to protect human rights against military abuses. Atrocities were repeatedly denounced by the Apostolic Administrators of Dili.
Only staunch international support groups, such as East Timor Action Network or the Campaign for an Independent East Timor, mainly active in Australia, undertook a similarly powerful advocacy role.
Pope John Paul II briefly visited the territory in October 1989, which drew significant attention to the plight of the East Timorese under Indonesian occupation.
In his homily, made directly for the people, he said "you are the salt of the earth" (referring to how the East Timorese extract salt on the coastal plains) and "the light of the world".
Later on, he affirmed that:
respect for the rights which render life more human must be firmly ensured: the rights of individuals and the rights of families.
This was a rare, radical claim for such a conservative pontiff.
City at a standstill
None of this has been forgotten by the East Timorese.
The mood is festive. Each successive second street lamp on Dili's main roads has placards or images of the Pope, with alternating posts adorned with lights of stars or hearts.
While independence celebrations saw much of the colours of Timor-Leste's flag across the city, the pope's visit has much Catholic iconography, including the sale of many T-shirts.
The city will literally stop for this event. We've been told to stock up on water and food in preparation.
Alongside Timor-Leste, Francis is visiting Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Singapore. The visits were originally planned for 2020 but postponed due to the COVID pandemic.
The government has allocated US$12 million (about A$18 million) for the visit. But there have been other costs too.
Some residents on "illegal" settlements have had their homes demolished for the site of Francis' mass, with hundreds of thousands expected to attend.
'One of the biggest events since independence'
The visit is a spiritual, cultural, and diplomatic mission all at once.
Spiritually, the visit promises "blessings and hopes" for a nation whose development remains precarious. It also offers a sense of unity via a promise of justice in faith.
Culturally, the papal visit will reinforce nation-building through the country's strong Catholic identity, which remains one of the few predominant shared core values.
Diplomatically, Francis is paying respects to first cardinals of Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste and Singapore - all key allies.
The pope's visit also has geopolitical implications.
It is symbolic of peace and an endorsement for ongoing reconciliation with Indonesia. Indonesian Muslim leaders have helped plan the event, which they see as crucial for promoting "shared understanding".
The other close neighbour, Australia, also views the visit as an "important moment", with Australia's ambassador to Timor-Leste, Caitlin Wilson, calling it "one of the biggest events held in the country since its restoration of independence in 2002".
East Timorese academic Mica Barreto Soares says the visit is a "privilege for a country like Timor" because:
all eyes of the international community will zoom in on a now independent Timor, so it is not just religious but political.
But perhaps the greatest hope is the international and internal political solidarity that may come with the visit.
Domestic political impact
Politics on the island remains fraught, partly because of historical legacies and generational shifts in leadership.
Independence hero and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, leader of the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), remains highly revered but holds tight reins on power and is ageing.
So-called "Generation '75", figures from the independence era, dominate the island's leadership with little representation from younger generations. This is despite the fact around 75% of the country are under 30.
The minority FRETLIN party has reduced in voter popularity and is excluded from executive power, highlighting ongoing feuds and some shifts in internal political dynamics.
The government has been criticised for centralising power and marginalising other political voices. It's also been accused of prioritising politically motivated large-scale infrastructure projects unaligned with people's needs.
Most dangerous of all, it's relying on the depletion of oil reserves. This is a fiscal cliff looming ever closer as Timor-Leste continues to draw down on its sovereign wealth fund (or Petroleum Fund), projected to be exhausted within the decade.
According to the World Bank, non-oil-related revenue stood at merely 14% of gross domestic product. Meanwhile, government spending was among some of the highest globally at 87% in 2023.
Francis is known for his advocacy of social justice and the poor. His visit to Timor-Leste could highlight these issues, pushing the country to focus on human development indicators and social services. These remain inadequately addressed, creating inequality that fuels political tensions.
Shannon Brincat does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
