A new study from the University of California San Diego's School of Global Policy and Strategy reveals that public outcry can lead to significant environmental action, even when public administrations are openly hostile to environmental priorities.
The paper, to be published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, focused on the unprecedented public scrutiny of forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon in August 2019, which occurred soon after Jair Bolsonaro, who campaigned on an explicitly anti-environmental platform, assumed office as Brazil's 38th president.
The study found that increased public attention resulted in a 22% decrease in fires in the Brazilian Amazon, a reduction that translated into the avoidance of approximately 24.8 million tons of CO2 emissions.
International pressure can have tangible, real-world impacts on environmental policy
Using a difference-in-differences design, the researchers compared fire activity in Brazil with that in Peru and Bolivia, countries that were not receiving the same amount of scrutiny but that typically have the same level of fire activity per square kilometer. The researchers found that the 2019 surge in attention led the Brazilian government to deploy fire brigades, which significantly halted the fires. In addition, there was in increase in Brazilian congressional speeches addressing the fires and subsequent governmental measures were implemented—all as a result of the heightened public and media attention.
This reduction not only helped mitigate the immediate impact of the fires but also contributed to Brazil's efforts to meet its Paris Agreement commitments.
"What this tells us is that this kind of international outcry and international pressure does, in fact, have the potential to have tangible, real-world impacts on environmental policy and environmental outcomes," Garg said.
The paper also notes that while the immediate reduction in fires was significant, the effects of the media surge were short-lived, with attention and fire activity returning to previous levels the following year.
The authors conclude, "Our study is a powerful example of how media and public pressure can drive significant environmental action, even in the face of ongoing challenges. It also illustrates the importance of sustained public engagement to achieve long-term environmental goals."
Coauthors include Rafael Araujo of São Paulo School of Economics and Francisco Costa of the University of Delaware.
Read the full study, "Going Viral: Public Attention and Environmental Action in the Amazon."
"Our research underscores the significant role that public attention and media coverage can play in influencing local environmental policies and actions," said study coauthor Teevrat Garg, who is an associate professor of economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy. "The 2019 surge in attention led to immediate governmental responses, which contributed to the notable decrease in fires."
The action from the Brazilian government was surprising as Bolsonaro had campaigned on cynicism over climate science and championing big business interests over sustainable development.
Forest fires in the Amazon, a critical global carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot, occur cyclically every year. Though technically illegal, the fires are often ignited to clear land for agriculture or spread as wildfires.
The spike in media attention that occurred in August 2019 was attributed to several factors, such as dramatic visual events like the "black sky" phenomenon in São Paulo and international criticism of Brazil's environmental policies. The events created an ideal opportunity to assess the impact of public scrutiny on local environmental actions.
