In a move that intensifies tensions and raises fears of a new offensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the largest conscription campaign in nearly a decade.
The decree calls for 150,000 new recruits, aged 18 to 30, to join the military between April and July. This significant boost in manpower is seen as a potential precursor to a renewed offensive against Ukraine.
This is the first conscription after Putin raised the maximum age to join the army from 27 to 30 to be able to draft more men. It is also the first campaign where eligible men will receive a digital draft notice informing them of compulsory enlistment obligation to serve in the army.
"Conscripts will begin to be sent to military units from April 15", said the Ministry of Defense said in a statement, citing Mobilization Vice Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky.
While Russian authorities assure the public that these conscripts won't be deployed to war zones, past actions suggest otherwise. Previous pledges haven't prevented conscripts from being sent to the front lines and even pressured into becoming full-time soldiers.
Analysts say Russia would likely draft more people than officially announced, particularly from among the ethnic minorities. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been accused of drafting or abducting non-Russian ethnic minorities disproportionately to beef up the front lines.
This conscription drive coincides with growing concerns about diminishing Western material support for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has warned in a media interview that without immediate U.S. military aid, Ukraine may be forced to cede territory to Russia and retreat.
The Biden administration is struggling to secure a critical $95 billion international aid package, including $60 billion for Ukraine, through the U.S. Congress. Zelensky desperately pleads for air defense systems, electronic warfare equipment, and ammunition to prevent a strategic retreat.
Meanwhile, the discourse around the war has been further ignited by comments from Elon Musk, who opined on the conflict via a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Musk suggested that Ukraine's attempts to counterattack a larger and better-fortified Russian army were ill-advised given the imbalance in military capabilities. He predicted that Russia would likely gain more territory, particularly if the conflict prolonged, possibly even capturing the strategic port city of Odesa.
“The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome,” Musk wrote.
“However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.”
According to Musk, whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is the real remaining question.
"I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens."
