Australian beef production hit a record 2.57 million tonnes in 2024 – one per cent higher than the previous record seen in 2014, according to a new research report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
And this rate of production is expected to continue in the year ahead, the bank's RaboResearch division says in its Q1 2025 Global Beef Quarterly.
Despite these record production volumes though, Australian cattle prices have remained steady, with the agribusiness banking specialist forecasting a stable outlook for prices ahead, with some potential "upside" through the first half of 2025.
Report lead author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said production volumes in quarter one and the rest of 2025 were expected to be similar to 2024.
The report says weekly Australian cattle slaughter numbers for the first six weeks of 2025 have continued at the same rate they ended last year and are up 17 per cent on the same period in 2024.
The report noted that while Australian beef production volumes had reached a record in 2024, actual slaughter numbers were down an estimated 10 per cent on the 2014 record. This was due to higher slaughter weights (an average of 310 kilograms) in 2024.
Prices stable
"Despite record production volumes," Mr Gidley-Baird said, "Australian cattle prices remain steady."
The report said in the last six months of 2024, most Australian cattle prices traded within 10 per cent of the average, making it one of the more stable periods in recent years.
Mr Gidley-Baird said generally-favourable seasonal conditions across many Australian beef-production regions had maintained producer confidence.
"This was reflected in strong buying activity in early-year weaner sales," he said. "And the strong US market is also supporting demand for Australian exports."
RaboResearch calculations indicate export volumes to the US in 2024 – which were up 60 per cent on the previous year – almost equalled the volumes consumed in the Australian domestic market.
"Imported lean Australian trim prices averaged 26 per cent higher in the first six weeks of 2025 than they did in 2024 indicating that the US demand remains and will potentially drive prices higher in 2025," Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"With favourable seasonal conditions and improving US demand for imports, we believe Australian cattle prices will remain steady with some upside through the first half of 2025, although US tariff activity does create some uncertainty."
Global outlook
After peaking in late 2024, global beef production is expected to contract in 2025, the report says.
RaboResearch projects Q1 2025 global production will be down two per cent on the same period in 2024, with Q2 volumes down three per cent.
"Overall, we expect global beef production in 2025 to be down two per cent on the previous year, albeit to levels that are still three per cent higher than the average volume of production in the five-year period between 2019 and 2023," Mr Gidley-Baird said.
"The largest production contractions for Q1 are expected to be in New Zealand and Brazil."
Mr Gidley-Baird said the new US administration created uncertainty in the global beef market with the threat and imposition of tariffs.
"In the first month under the new US administration, we have already seen uncertainty generated through the proposal and then postponement of tariffs on Mexico and Canada," he said.
"Depending on what decisions are made, there is the potential for disruptions to trade flows into the US, and given its position in the global market, these are likely to spill over into global trade impacts."
South America
The report notes that South America is a growing presence in global meat markets.
The bank says that as global beef demand rises, South American producers are prioritising exports over domestic markets.
Despite a projected contraction in South American beef production in 2025, export volumes are expected to continue to grow, driven by strong international demand, particularly from China, the report says.
RaboResearch believes this trend will continue in the coming years, making more beef available for the export market.
Mr Gidley-Baird said production in the four largest South American beef-producing and exporting countries – Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay – is forecast to contract in 2025.
RaboResearch expects Brazil, which accounts for 63 per cent of South America's supply, will reduce its production by 500,000 million tonnes this year.
Despite the drop in South American beef production, Mr Gidley-Baird said, an ongoing trend of declining purchasing power among local consumers and reduced domestic consumption of beef has seen export volume growth become the primary strategy for processors at the expense of the local market.
Mr Gidley-Baird said China had significantly increased its demand for animal proteins from South America since 2019.
"In 2024, for every four million tonnes of beef imported by China, three million tonnes came from South America," he said. "Brazil exported 1.34 million tonnes (47 per cent of China's beef imports), Argentina 595,000 million tonnes (21 per cent), and Uruguay 244,000 million tonnes (eight per cent) – supplying 76 per cent of Chinese total beef imports."
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