THE CLIMATE COUNCIL'S HEAT MAP tool out today (February 27) reveals regional electorates will face some of the worst increases in hot days if Australia and other nations fail to follow through on their current climate commitments.
Under a highly polluting or a "drill, baby, drill" scenario, which calculates heat changes if there's no action to cut back on burning coil, oil and gas, parts of Queensland, WA and the NT will swelter through days over 35℃ for more than half the year by 2090.
The modelling also shows that the worst heat will hit communities least able to cope with it, including poor electorates, those with greater numbers of older Australians and children under five years old. The bulk of these communities are located in regional areas.
For example, children in the Northern Territory's Lingiari, Australia's poorest electorate*, face spending the majority of their lives sweating through extreme heat by 2090, with an expected 235 days over 35℃ each year.
In New South Wales, Lyne has the largest proportion of people over 65 of any Australian electorate, and is set to swelter through three times more hot days by 2050 (from 3 days to 9 days) while the nearby Cowper electorate also has a high proportion of people over 65 and is set to swelter through an extra four days of heat by 2050.
In Victoria, one in four voters in Flinders and Wannon are over 65. Flinders faces double the number of hot days on average while Wannon will see almost double by 2050.
Long-term Cowper resident Maura Luxford said: ''The heat is already unbearable in my part of regional Australia. Many of my elderly friends have endured another grueling summer, and it's taking a toll. I'm seeing my kids less because they don't want to visit at Christmas when it's so hot.
"As a grandmother, I worry about the future our children will inherit. These extremes will only get worse unless we act. We need to keep going with our switch to clean energy - we can't afford to reverse course.'"
Climate Councillor Professor David Karoly said: "This updated heat map tool comes as the world experienced the hottest January on record, right on the heels of 2024 being the hottest year on record globally.
"Heat can impact anyone but those over 65 and children under five are most at risk of becoming ill on hot days and during heatwaves. As a climate scientist and a grandparent I'm alarmed at the heat our communities are facing if we don't forge ahead with rapid cuts to climate pollution.
"Even a small increase in the number of hot days or nights can damage our ecosystems and our health. For example, Tasmania's expected increase of an average of just one more day over 35°C would have a major detrimental impact on its coastal rainforests. These figures are also average increases, which means there will be some years in which many more extreme hot days are experienced than the projected average number over two decades."
Notable heat stats - Climate Council Heat Map 2025
Note: Projections are based on a 'high' emissions scenario, a pathway in which global emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. It corresponds with a likely global average temperature rise of around 4.4°C by 2100.
New South Wales Hottest electorate: On average, Parkes faces 120 days per year over 35℃ by 2090 if we don't cut climate pollution. (Parkes currently has the most days on average 55 days per year over 35℃.) Poorest electorates*: Fowler is the fourth poorest Australian electorate, and will experience almost four times the number of hot days by 2090 (from 8 days to 31 over 35℃). Electorate with a high proportion of people over 65 years old (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Lyne, 30% of the population is over 65. This community will face 3 times the number of hot days by 2050 (from 3 to 9 days over 35℃). In Cowper, 26% of the population is over 65 and will face 5 times the number of hot days by 2050 (from 1 to 5 days over 35℃). Electorate with a high proportion of children under 5 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Macarthur, 8% of the electorate is aged under 5, and will face a two-fold increase in hot days by 2090 (from 6 to 14 days over 35℃). |
Victoria Hottest electorate: If no action is taken to reduce climate pollution, Mallee will have 58 days over 35℃ by 2090, up from current 25 days over 35℃. Electorates with a high proportion of most people over 65 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Flinders, 28% of the electorate is over 65. This community will face 2 times the number of days over 35℃, from 3 to 6 on average by 2050. In Monash, 25% of the electorate is over 65. This community faces 6 days over 35℃ by 2050 if we don't cut emissions, a two-fold increase from 3 days on average per year over 35℃ currently. In Wannon, 24% of the electorate is over 65. This community faces almost double the number of days over 35℃ (from from 7 to 12) by 2050 if we fail cut climate pollution . Electorate with a high proportion of people under 5 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Lalor, 9% of the electorate is aged under 5. This community faces 2.5 times the number of days over 35℃ by 2090, up from 9 to 23. In Holt, 8% of the electorate is under 5 years old. This community faces almost triple the number of hot days by 2090, from 6 to 17. |
Queensland Hottest electorates: Kennedy will be the hottest electorate in Queensland by 2090, facing 214 days over 35℃ on average, up from the current average of 110 days over 35℃. The Maranoa electorate will face 172 days over 35℃ by 2090, an almost two-fold increase from the current average of 91 days. Poorest electorate*: Leichhardt is the fifth poorest Australian electorate, and is set to experience almost four times the number of hot days by 2090 (from 44 to 171 days over 35℃). Electorate with a high proportion of people over 65 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Hinkler, 29% of the electorate is aged over 65. Those currently aged 65 in this community face a 7-fold increase in hot days by the time they're 90 years old in 2050 (from 2 days to 14 days on average). Electorate with a high proportion of people under 5 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Oxley, 7% of the electorate is aged under 5. This community faces an 11-fold increase in hot days by 2090 (from 4 days over 35℃ to 44 days on average). |
South Australia Hottest electorate: Grey will have 123 days over 35℃ by 2090 if we don't cut climate pollution, up from the current average of 69 days over 35℃ per year. Poorest electorates*: Grey is also the third poorest electorate in Australia overall and has 23% of the population aged over 65. This community will swelter through an extra 30 days over 35℃ by 2050. Spence is the seventh poorest electorate in Australia overall and faces 46 days over 35℃ by 2090 without cuts to climate pollution, up from the current average of 22 days per year over 35℃. Electorate with the highest proportion of people over 65 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): In Mayo, 24% of the electorate is over 65. 65 year-olds in this community are set to face almost double the number of hot days by the time they're 90 in 2050 (from on average 6 days over 35℃ to 11 days. |
Western Australia Hottest electorate: The Durack electorate faces a whopping 225 days of the year over 35℃ by 2090 if there's no action to curb climate pollution. That's up from the current average of 138 hot days each year. Poorest electorate*: Durack is also the sixth poorest electorate in Australia – meaning, many people do not have the ability to cool or improve their homes to cope with extreme heat. Electorate with the highest proportion of people under 5 (who are vulnerable to extreme heat): The Burt electorate has one of the highest proportions of young children, with 8% aged under 5. By the time they're around 25 years old (in 2050), they'll face 35 days over 35℃ each year, and by 2090 they'll experience 54 hot days each year on average. |
Tasmania Hottest electorates: The Clark electorate, located around Hobart, faces the most days over 35℃ by 2090 (2 days), and the Lyons electorate, which covers much of eastern Tasmania, faces between one and two days. While this may not sound like a lot, it's triple the average amount of hot days currently experienced. Just one more day over 35°C would have a detrimental impact on Tasmania's rainforests. |
ACT Hottest electorate: The Canberra electorate will be the hottest part of the ACT, with 27 days over 35℃ by 2090. This is more than four times the current average of 6 days over over 35℃. |
Northern Territory Hottest electorate: Children in the Northern Territory's Lingiari, Australia's poorest electorate*, face spending the majority of their lives sweating through extreme heat by 2090, with an expected 235 days over 35℃ each year up from the current 130 days above 35℃ on average. |
* Poorest electorate calculated by the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage.
