A greater understanding of how climate change impacts at a regional level is vital to developing effective climate policies that protect communities from escalating risks. A team, including researchers from British Antarctic Survey (BAS), describe in the journal Frontiers in Science how they used the results from multiple new studies to make a synthesis of regional climate data that highlights emerging climate change signals.
They emphasize the increasing intensity of monsoons, altered storm tracks, and polar precipitation shifts, underscoring the critical need for such region-specific data to inform climate adaptation policies. The researchers say that while worldwide changes, such as increases in global mean temperature, often dominate discussions of climate mitigation actions, a detailed understanding of the regional impacts of a warming world is crucial for protecting communities from escalating risks.
"We are constantly advancing our understanding of climate change, particularly its regional aspects, to inform policies aimed at adaptation," said lead author Mat Collins, Professor in Climate Change at the University of Exeter and a member of the University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute.
"While global aspects remain important, humanity will feel the impact of climate change at the regional level. This is where infrastructure planning, extreme event preparedness, and management of public health and food security need up-to-date climate science."
Regional impacts and rising risks
The study revealed a range of emerging climate change signals at the local level that are likely to occur this century, spanning from the equator to the poles. In tropical and subtropical regions, dramatic changes in precipitation are expected to significantly alter monsoon intensity, leading to substantial societal impacts.
Monsoon systems, which are critical for agriculture, directly affect billions of people. Approximately 60% of the world's population resides in the northern hemisphere monsoon regions, where the summer monsoon season can deliver up to 80% of the annual rainfall. As aerosol emissions decrease and greenhouse gases rise, monsoons are predicted to become more intense, potentially resulting in floods, landslides, and reduced agricultural yields.
In the mid-latitudes, high-resolution climate models indicate a potential strengthening of storm tracks into northwestern Europe, increasing the risk of extreme weather.
"Increased monsoon precipitation and storm track rainfall variability can lead to droughts in some regions and high winds and flooding in others, resulting in devastating impacts on agriculture, essential infrastructure, and the overall health of communities," said co-author Vikki Thompson, from the Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, the Netherlands.
Impacts from the poles
In polar regions, projections show that a greater fraction of precipitation will fall as rain rather than snow, potentially accelerating ice melt and amplifying sea-level rise. This transition endangers coastal communities worldwide. Moreover, changes at the poles are not confined to those regions. Polar amplification, which refers to the phenomenon in which the poles warm faster than the rest of the planet, can influence weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, potentially altering storm tracks.
Enhanced climate models can improve regional adaptation and resilience
The study calls for a concerted, interdisciplinary effort in the scientific and policy communities to bridge the gaps in climate modeling. Higher-resolution data, integration of machine learning techniques, and new models will improve the simulation of complex climate phenomena at both global and regional levels.
According to Eunice Lo, co-author from the University of Bristol, UK, such advancements are vital for informing international climate policies and ensuring that local adaptation measures-such as resilient infrastructure, enhanced early-warning systems, and sustainable agricultural practices-are based on the most reliable and precise data.
"Regional information is essential for preparing for these extreme events and implementing effective, science-led adaptation measures," said co-author Dr Matthew Priestley, a Research Fellow at the University of Exeter.
"Without investments into advanced climate modeling and monitoring systems, policymakers and local communities are left navigating climate risks with insufficient information, which can lead to inadequate or misdirected efforts."
Dr Paul Holland, an ocean/ice scientist at the BAS added:
"Human-induced climate change is unequivocal, but the average global warming of our planet is not likely to be the biggest impact. Instead, ecosystems and human populations are most affected by changes in flooding and drought, extreme heat and cold, and other impacts such as storm damage and sea-level rise.
"This review highlights the significant progress scientists are making in understanding the influence of human forcing on these complex impacts. For example, in the polar regions we are assessing the human contribution to ice losses that are changing weather patterns and making substantial contributions to global sea-level rise. The review emphasises that we must urgently curtail emissions of greenhouse gases in order to avoid a range of potentially catastrophic changes in all regions of our planet."
The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub 'Regional climate change impacts'.
