A recent study published in the journal Engineering delves into how individuals' decisions regarding electric vehicle (EV) purchases and residential locations interact, and what impacts these have on urban development. Conducted by researchers from Beijing Jiaotong University and University College London, the study uses an agent-based microeconomic model to analyze these complex relationships in a two-dimensional monocentric city.
Vehicle electrification is a crucial strategy for cutting carbon emissions in road transport. As EVs gain popularity, understanding the factors influencing their adoption and the resulting effects on urban structure becomes essential. The study notes that while EVs have a higher upfront cost compared to fuel vehicles (FVs), their operational costs are lower. For example, in 2022, fuel-economy battery EVs in the US consumed less electricity per 100 kilometers than FVs consumed gasoline, with electricity being more cost-effective.
The researchers developed a spatial equilibrium model to account for the interactions between urban density, vehicle age, and vehicle type. They considered a monocentric city where all residents work in the central business district (CBD). Households make decisions on residential location and vehicle type based on factors such as commuting costs, housing affordability, and utility maximization.
The simulation results show some interesting trends. The proportion of EVs in the city peaks at over 50% by the end of the first vehicle-scrappage period. However, this increase in EV adoption is accompanied by a more than 40% rise in commuting distance and time compared to a scenario with only FVs. Also, households with EVs tend to live farther from the city center. This is because the lower operational costs of EVs make long-distance commuting more affordable.
Vehicle age plays a significant role in these decisions. Older vehicles have higher operational costs, and households with older vehicles are more likely to be located closer to the CBD to minimize commuting expenses. The heterogeneity in vehicle age leads to residential segregation, which can cause urban sprawl and congestion.
The study also examines the factors affecting EV adoption. A higher purchase price of EVs reduces their adoption rate, while a decrease in the inconvenience cost (IC) of using EVs, such as improved charging infrastructure, promotes adoption. Higher fuel prices also encourage the switch to EVs. The distribution of public charging piles is another crucial factor. Denser charging infrastructure near the city center can stabilize EV adoption levels and shorten commuting distances for EV users.
Although the study provides valuable insights, it has limitations. It doesn't fully consider the role of home charging stations, the development of EV technology, and the potential overloading of the electricity system during peak hours. Future research could explore these aspects to better understand the complex relationship between EV adoption and urban development. Overall, this research offers a new perspective on the dynamic interactions between EVs and urban living, which is useful for policymakers and urban planners.
The paper "Exploring Electric Vehicle Purchases and Residential Choices in a Two-Dimensional Monocentric City: An Agent-Based Microeconomic Model," authored by Chao Shu, Yue Bao, Ziyou Gao, Zaihan Gao. Full text of the open access paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2024.12.001
