When El Salvador President Nayib Bukele implemented a controversial crime crackdown three years ago, he inadvertently helped answer one of the key questions in U.S. immigration policy: How much do crime and violence really drive Central American emigration to the United States?
Quite a bit, according to a new study from the Bush School's Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy . The study found that the crackdown, which significantly reduced killings in El Salvador, also reduced the number of apprehensions/expulsions at the U.S. border by 45% to 67%. Simply put, a country with less violent crime produced fewer migrants. The research was published in the Journal of Development Economics , the field's leading publication.
The Mosbacher Institute also recently published a companion piece in The Takeaway , a series of articles that translate Mosbacher research for the general public.
Previous research suggested that safety concerns were a key contributor to Central American emigration. But definitive conclusions were difficult to reach because safety considerations were usually entangled with the prospect of migrants seeking jobs and material prosperity. Bukele removed that hurdle when he ordered a roundup of suspected gang members. The dramatic step did not change economic conditions in El Salvador, leaving the corresponding drop in crime as the only explanation for the drop in migration, according to the study.
The authors say they are not endorsing such crackdowns. Bukele's order drew international condemnation for allegedly trampling civil liberties with steps such as indiscriminately jailing people without due process. Countering organized crime is important, according to the authors, but such efforts should respect human rights.
"Migration and organized crime are common challenges that demand regional collaboration, including revising the restrictive provisions of U.S. trade agreements with the region," said Raymond Robertson, one of the study authors and director of the Mosbacher Institute.
KILLING SPREE, MASS INCARCERATION
Immigration is an issue woven into the fabric of the United States. It is perhaps the most potent political question not only here but in many industrialized nations wrestling with questions of identity, opportunity, justice and security. There were more than 280 million international migrants worldwide in 2020, according to the Mosbacher study: 86 million in Europe and 50 million in the United States. U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows that more than 2 million border encounters happened annually from 2021 to 2023, most of them along the southwestern border of the United States.
"The 'border crisis' brought migration to the forefront of (U.S.) policy debates, was a leading issue in the 2024 election, and motivated a search for the 'root causes'," according to the study.
Many assumed that violent crime plays a part. A few studies suggested as much, though on a limited basis. One study linked rising homicides in Central American countries to more arrests of unaccompanied minors at the U.S. border. Another study found that a 2012-13 gang truce in El Salvador, which reduced homicides 53%, also reduced the probability of Salvadoran migration to the United States. Beyond those studies, "Separating the contributions of economic factors and security concerns is difficult because they are often conflated and there are few 'natural experiments' that only affect one and not the other," according to the Mosbacher study. It presents a broader, clearer picture by examining the aftermath of Bukele's "state of exception" declaration in March 2022.
Bukele, elected in 2019, had already enacted a violence-reduction plan that increased security forces and prison sanctions while also introducing social programs intended to hinder gang recruitment by aiding vulnerable populations. Then came a March 2022 killing spree. It left 87 dead over three days. In response, "security forces arrested most, if not all, of those suspected of being connected to gangs or organized crime," an estimated 75,163 people, according to The Takeaway article accompanying the study. Following Bukele's declaration, homicide rates in El Salvador dropped from 18 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 2.4 per 100,000 in 2023, "one of the lowest levels in recent history."
The drop in homicides corresponded with the drop in migration to the U.S. border, according to the study.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
U.S. presidential administrations have taken notably different approaches to handling the challenges of immigration. In 2021, former President Joe Biden's administration focused on reducing migration by improving economic conditions in Central American countries. The general premise was that more opportunities and better jobs would result in more Central Americans choosing not to risk the arduous, dangerous multi-country trek to the United States. More recently, President Donald Trump's administration has focused on punishing Latin American drug cartels and increasing deportations. The Trump administration has also reportedly agreed to a deal to pay El Salvador to house migrants and imprisoned U.S. citizens .
The Mosbacher Institute researchers are recommending a multipronged approach to Central American migration. They suggest a policy mix "that balances security measures with economic and social reforms designed to help communities thrive."
The Takeaway article proposes five general steps:
- promoting regional collaboration to curb gang activity and enhance economic cooperation;
- upgrading trade agreements to support job creation and income growth in Central American countries;
- helping Central American countries strengthen their civic institutions by implementing, among other measures, judicial and law-enforcement accountability reforms to curb abuses and enhance public trust;
- investing in social programs such as healthcare and education to address economic inequalities and social vulnerabilities that underlie crime; and
- partnering with stakeholders, particularly local groups, to ensure policies reflect local needs.
El Salvador may have reduced both violent crime and emigration, but the United States should not encourage other countries to adopt Bukele's approach, the Mosbacher researchers say.
"We do not intend to downplay the human rights issues and related legal and ethical concerns of the crackdown," the authors write in the study, "but a rigorous analysis of these issues is beyond the scope of this study."
By Texas A&M University Bush School of Government and Public Service
