Resistance to the war in Ukraine reveals a stark gender divide, with only 39.6% of women expressing support compared to 62.8% of men. Economic dissatisfaction and fear of repression further fuel this quiet opposition, particularly among women and the economically vulnerable.
Although support for the regime remains substantial, resistance is notably concentrated among certain demographic groups. The Panel Study of Russian Public Opinion and Attitudes (PROPA) conducted by the Aleksanteri Institute highlights that women are at the forefront of this silent opposition. This disparity suggests that women, who may be disproportionately impacted by the socio-economic fallout of the war, are more likely to oppose it. Many female respondents, particularly those who refuse to answer direct questions about the war, demonstrate passive resistance, possibly influenced by fear of repression.
The data also reveals that the opposition is more pronounced in anonymous online surveys, where 42.6% of respondents supported the war compared to higher levels of support in telephone interviews. This suggests that fear of state surveillance leads many Russians to conceal their true opinions, further complicating the understanding of dissent within the country. Despite this, the cracks in the regime's legitimacy are becoming more visible through these indirect expressions of resistance.
Another critical factor driving opposition to the war is economic dissatisfaction. Respondents who are less satisfied with their financial situation are more likely to oppose both the regime and its military actions. Economic vulnerability correlates strongly with anti-regime behavior, including protest voting and political disengagement. This suggests that while outright protest remains rare due to fear of repression, economic discontent continues to fuel passive forms of resistance.
Finally, while the belief in the possibility of protest has diminished-dropping from 14% in March to just 6% by June 2024-the underlying resistance persists. Women, younger Russians, and economically vulnerable individuals represent key pillars of this quiet defiance, hinting at the potential for future challenges to the regime, even in the face of severe repression.
