Denver Nuggets centre Nikola Jokić, one of the NBA's biggest stars, was famously drafted ... during a Taco Bell commercial .
Selected 41st overall in the second round of the 2014 draft as ESPN cut away to the fast-food ad, Jokić would ultimately go on to become a championship-winning, three-time MVP, raising questions about how coaches and scouts ultimately make their high-stakes decisions.
"It could be argued that one of the most difficult predictions a person makes is what another person's future will look like," says Kathryn Johnston, a senior research associate in the University of Toronto's Faculty of Kinesiology & Physical Education (KPE).
In an effort to better understand the forces at play, Johnston decided to conduct an experiment with the help of Joseph Baker, a professor at KPE and the Tanenbaum Chair in Sport Science, Data Modelling and Sport Analytics.
For their study, the researchers created an online tool - similar to a dating app - that tasked 18 coaches with making mock selections for a hypothetical roster based on 15 athlete profiles. Each profile included pictures, anthropometric information (the measurements and proportions of the athletes' bodies), and a description of the athletes' interests, abilities and statistics.
The findings, published in the journal Sport, Science and Performance Psychology , show a slight preference for athletes who were labelled as hard workers as opposed to natural talents. The coaches also preferred certain anthropometric qualities, passion and commitment to sport, speed and explosiveness.
The researchers observed the greatest variety of approaches when it came to defining what constitutes success and talent, receiving nearly 18 different definitions - essentially one for each coach in the sample. The coaches also weighted the information sources in unique ways, each valuing various aspects of the players' information differently.
"For some, profile pictures were critical; for others, it was the birthdate, etc.," says Johnston.
The researchers say their findings could help illuminate preferences, biases and tendencies when making athlete selection decisions. That, in turn, could help scouts, coaches and other participants better align their approaches with organizational priorities while addressing any blind spots.
Next up, the researchers plan to examine decision-making behaviours in athlete selection on a much larger scale.
"We are going to use a similar design to try and determine whether selectors are selecting in line with their stated preferences or otherwise," says Johnston. "Beyond that, we hope to create adaptations of this experiment to better understand how subtle language changes might actually influence selection behaviour."
