Blackouts loom for millions of homes and businesses in southeastern Australia in as little as two years if the Greens' policy to ban new gas investment is enacted.
has found the Australian Greens' proposal would trigger "major economic disruption" on both coasts of Australia.
Along the east coast of Australia, it would lead to manufacturers closing, and long-term Queensland export contracts being cancelled.
Gas for electricity generation would be interrupted within two years, risking blackouts and soaring emissions as coal and diesel replace gas.
The report, commissioned by Australian Energy Producers, found that a halt to investment in gas supply would devastate the economy:
- Gas for east coast electricity could be interrupted within two years and would run out by 2029.
- Industrial users including manufacturers in the southeast would face closure within a decade due to insufficient gas supply and lack of viable alternatives.
- Western Australia would run out of gas for electricity - which accounts for 60 per cent of the state's power - from the early-2030s and its mining and industrial sectors would be left without gas from mid-2030s.
- Queensland's long-term LNG export contracts would be broken, damaging relations with key trade partners and ripping billions out of the Queensland economy.
- The economic and energy security potential of the NT's Beetaloo Basin would go unrealised.
Australian Energy Producers Chief Executive Samantha McCulloch said: "The Greens' policy would mean lights out for Australia – undermining energy security and economic stability – while being a handbrake on the transition to net zero.
"The Future Gas Strategy is clear that the Australian economy will need gas to 2050 and beyond, and investment in new gas supply is urgently needed to meet demand," she said.
"AEMO has warned the east coast will need more gas for electricity while the ACCC called for the lifting of exploration bans and fast-tracking of approvals.
"Instead, the Greens policy would undermine energy security, drive up energy prices, and extend the reliance on coal – both in Australia and for our key trading partners – ultimately increasing emissions and slowing the energy transformation."
"The findings confirm the Greens don't have a credible plan for Australia's future. Their three-word slogan is not an energy policy, but a recipe for destroying Australia's economy and energy security. Australians deserve to know what a vote for the Greens really means for jobs and their energy bills.
Ms McCulloch said the substantial economic benefits from new gas projects would also be lost.
"Australia's gas industry is a major economic driver - investing hundreds of billions of dollars in recent decades, creating thousands of jobs, delivering up to $17 billion annually to governments and spending $40 billion with businesses in Australia each year," she said.
WA mining stranded without gas
Gas provides 60% of WA's electricity and stopping new gas projects means gas-powered electricity would be unavailable by the early 2030s, forcing the government to abandon plans to phase out coal.
Banning new gas would also be a major blow for WA's mining and industrial sectors and the economic fortunes of the state and the nation, with the gas supply available to industry halving by the mid-2030s.
Ms McCulloch said: "Gas is a critical part of WA's energy transition, with AEMO forecasting gas demand will grow by over 30% to 2033, supporting the uptake of renewables and the phase out of coal in electricity as well as powering the state's critical mineral ambitions. If anyone takes the Greens' ban on new gas investment seriously, the state's energy and economic security will be smashed."
Queensland LNG economic bonanza over
The Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism would need to be triggered, diverting Queensland LNG south, breaking foundation contracts and damaging Australia's trading relationships.
"Within four years, half of Queensland's LNG capacity would be unused, and within 12 years Queensland LNG exports would cease," EQ said.
Industry has invested tens of billions in export infrastructure, creating thousands of jobs and helping deliver $7 billion of royalties to the State Budget to date. Another $5 billion is due in coming years.
Ms McCulloch said: "No new gas would be a hammer blow for Queensland as the billions of dollars of royalties that have helped pay for hospitals, roads and schools dried up.
"All of the effort and investment Queensland and the industry have put in to create a vibrant gas industry employing thousands of people would be wasted if no new gas investment occurs."
NT's Beetaloo Basin development halted
The long journey to produce onshore gas out of the Beetaloo Basin would be halted.
Ms McCulloch said: "The Beetaloo Basin can bolster east coast energy security while creating jobs and royalty streams for the NT as part of its economic ambitions. But no new gas investment would destroy all this after years of work to create this economic opportunity for Territorians."
Warning to governments
Ms McCulloch said the EnergyQuest report highlighted the critical need for new gas supply.
"This must include much faster approval processes for gas supply projects and removing barriers to investment such as moratoriums," she said. "Australia's gas industry stands ready to invest and remains committed to delivering reliable and affordable energy for households and businesses."
