On 4 - 5 March, Somalia held its sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) in Mogadishu.
The forum was organized by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC) with technical support from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Somalia, WMO office for Eastern and Southern Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). More than 40 participants attended from various institutions, including representatives from the Federal Government of Somalia, Federal Member States, FAO, WMO, ICPAC, and key climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, food Security, water, health, and disaster risk management.
The forum aimed to present and discuss the climate outlook for the upcoming Gu (March-April-May) season, focusing on the impacts of the previous Deyr (October-December) 2024 season. It further served as a platform for stakeholders to share knowledge, assess risks, and develop mitigation strategies for the upcoming season.
Key findings from the Gu 2025 Seasonal Outlook ( press release ) indicated that drier-than-normal conditions are expected across most parts of Somalia, particularly in Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Bay, and inland parts of both Galguduud and Mudug regions, where the likelihood of below-average rainfall exceeds 50 percent. Additionally, warmer-than-average temperatures are anticipated across the country, with a greater than 60 percent probability in Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland, and Somaliland. Rainfall onset will vary across the country, with the early onset expected between April 10-17 in the western and northern parts of Gedo region, moderate onset between April 17-24 in Lower Juba, Southwest, and Hirshabelle States, and late onset expected between April 24-30 in Mudug and southern Nugaal regions. The maximum wet spells will occur between April 20 and May 11, 2025, with coastal parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Puntland experiencing the longest wet spells after rainfall onset
The implications of these findings are significant, with the anticipated below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures posing risks to food security, water availability, and livestock survival. Extended dry periods could exacerbate drought conditions, impacting livelihoods and increasing humanitarian needs. To mitigate the potential impacts, the forum called on government and humanitarian agencies to enhance early warning systems, scale up drought response efforts, and support at-risk communities. It also urged farmers and livestock keepers to adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices and water conservation techniques. Health and disaster management authorities were encouraged to prepare for heat-related illnesses and waterborne diseases, while development partners and NGOs were urged to provide timely humanitarian assistance to the most affected regions. As a next step, participants will continue to disseminate the advisories and collaborate with local stakeholders to enhance preparedness for the 2025 Gu season, a critical period for Somalia's food production and water security.
The NCOF6 was funded by the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Horn of Africa project, which provided the financial and technical support necessary for organizing the forum and developing actionable climate services.
