As heatwaves worsen and fire and flood risks intensify, a new report by the Centre for Western Sydney highlights that while Western Sydney is one of Australia's fastest growing regions, it's also one of the most hazard prone and socially vulnerable to climate change in the greater Sydney area.
Data from the NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan shows that Penrith, Hawkesbury, Blacktown, and Parramatta are among the most at-risk communities in the state when it comes to natural hazards. As the population grows and climate continues to change, the region faces growing threats from extreme heat, flooding, bushfires, and severe storms.
The Climate Vulnerability in Western Sydney report uses new national data from the Australian Climate Service to highlight that the region's risk from climate change goes beyond heatwaves, floods, and fires. It shows that deeper, long-term inequalities leave some communities more exposed and make it harder for them to recover from extreme weather and disaster events.
The report finds that Fairfield, Canterbury-Bankstown, Liverpool, Cumberland, and Campbelltown are the most socially vulnerable areas in Greater Sydney. These communities face higher levels of social and economic disadvantage, including lower household incomes, housing stress, and a much greater reliance on social housing. In some cases, social housing levels are more than three times the Greater Sydney average.
Income inequality is a major factor. Low-income households make up 17.5 percent of families in Fairfield, compared with 8.2 percent across the rest of Sydney.
While social housing provides critical shelter for low-income residents, much of this stock is old, poorly insulated, and lacks efficient cooling systems, exposing tenants to extreme indoor heat and other health risks said lead author Dr Anastasia Mortimer, from the Centre for Western Sydney.
"Reducing risk demands systemic change, including investment in affordable and resilient housing, equitable access to essential services, and the integration of climate risk into urban development decisions," said Dr Mortimer.
"Across Australia, climate change is reshaping the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of natural hazards. But overwhelmingly, those most at risk in all of Greater Sydney are those in the west, where exposure to hazards coincides with socio-economic marginalisation and gaps in infrastructure and services.
"This vulnerability, however, is not inevitable. It is socially produced through systems of planning, housing, and infrastructure investment that have historically disadvantaged the region."
Professor Azadeh Dastyari, Director of the Centre for Western Sydney and co-author of the report, calls for a shift from reactive emergency responses to fair, prevention-focused action that strengthens communities, builds resilience, and supports safe, sustainable growth across Western Sydney.
"Climate change doesn't create inequality, it exposes it," said Professor Azadeh Dastyari.
"For too long, the systems that shape where we live and what we can afford have left some communities carrying more risk than others. Reducing climate vulnerability in Western Sydney is about ensuring that every community has the infrastructure and support to thrive.
"It also requires recognising and strengthening the adaptive capacities that already exist within Western Sydney, such as its cultural networks, community organisations, and local knowledge, that enable residents to prepare for and recover from disasters."
The researchers are calling on policy makers to build on the strength already in the region, to redesign the systems including housing, infrastructure, and climate so that rapid regional growth does not embed tomorrow's disasters.
