Living with persistent poverty and/or parental mental illness throughout childhood doubles the risk of carrying and/or using a weapon and getting on the wrong side of the law by the age of 17, suggests University of Liverpool research published in the Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health.
These factors may account for nearly 1 in 3 cases of weapon use or carriage and nearly a quarter of all police contacts among 17 year olds, nationwide, estimate the researchers.
Youth crime and violence are common around the world, they note. In England and Wales, for example, around 104,400 first-time offenders were recorded in the criminal justice system in 2020, with 11% of them aged between 10 and 17.
As risk factors tend to cluster, the researchers set out to assess the extent to which early life exposure to poverty and family adversities might predict teen involvement in youth violence, crime, and contact with the justice system.
They drew on long term data from the representative UK Millennium Cohort Study for 9316 children, whose exposure to family adversities and household poverty had been reported from birth to the age of 14.
When they were 17 they were asked, via questionnaire, if they had carried or used a weapon, such as a knife, and/or had been in contact with the police to include being stopped and questioned, given a formal warning or caution, and being arrested.
The overall prevalence of weapon involvement was just over 6%, while that of police contact was 20%.
Analysis of the data showed that exposure to poverty and family adversity either singly or combined throughout childhood significantly increased the likelihood of violence and criminal justice involvement during their teenage years.
Nearly 1 in 10 (just under 9%) of the teens exposed to persistent poverty and poor parental mental health throughout childhood said they had carried or used a weapon while more than 1 in 4 (28%) of them had come into contact with the police.
This compares with 5% and just over 17%, respectively, of those who had not grown up in this environment.
Overall, those who had been exposed to persistent poverty and poor parental mental health throughout their childhood were twice as likely to carry/use a weapon and to report contact with the police, after accounting for potentially influential factors, including the mother's ethnic background and educational attainment.
And as teens they were more than 5 times as likely to be arrested or taken into police custody, 3 times as likely to be warned or cautioned by the police, and twice as likely to be stopped and questioned by them.
Based on these figures, and population estimates, the researchers estimate that persistent poverty and family adversities account for around a third (32%) of all cases of weapon use/carriage and nearly 1 in 4 (23%) cases of contact with the police among 17 year olds across the UK.
This is an observational study, and as such, no firm conclusions can be drawn about cause and effect. And the researchers acknowledge that there might have been other as yet unaccounted for influential factors.
But lead author the Institute of Population Health's Dr Nicholas Adjei writes: "Our analysis provides strong evidence that persistent adversity throughout childhood is strongly associated with risk of involvement in violence and contact with police in adolescence, highlighting the negative effects of both accumulation and duration of childhood adversity."
And they conclude: "Our findings suggest the need for a whole system approach and the implementation and strengthening of national and local policies focused on early intervention and support for families with low incomes and those experiencing family adversity, such as mental health problems.
"Addressing these issues comprehensively and syndemically earlier in the life course across multiple sectors, such as schools, communities, healthcare providers, and the law system, may reduce risk-taking behaviours in adolescence, ultimately contributing to better outcomes for young people."
