The Brisbane Lions are the underdogs for Saturday's AFL grand final against Sydney.
Authors
Brendon Hyndman
Associate Professor of Health & Physical Education (Adj.), Charles Sturt University
Tom Hartley
Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania
Vaughan Cruickshank
Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania
After defeating Geelong in Victoria for the first time in 20 years, they have reached the grand final from fifth on the ladder, without a rest week or double-chance (as teams that finish in the top four enjoy).
Taking into account the VFL origins of both clubs, this will be the first Lions-Swans grand final for 125 years.
The Lions' task against the Swans, who finished as minor premiers, is formidable but not impossible.
As history shows, upsets happen. But what have been the greatest shocks in men's VFL/AFL grand final history?
Sports betting odds are one way to determine an upset, but that is a fairly modern phenomenon, so we delved beyond odds.
Other considerations include comparing the respective ladder positions of the opposing teams, the length of time since a team's previous premiership, the age and experience of the playing group, or even the team's record at the venue or against the other team.
We have given greatest weighting to ladder position going into the finals, which we believe is the fairest indicator of the magnitude of an upset, because it signifies a team's performance and consistency during that season.
Below is our verdict on the biggest grand final upsets of all time, with reference to these various criteria.
Experience of playing group
#10 - 1993 Essendon defeated Carlton
The 1993 "Baby Bombers" premiership was a big surprise after they finished eighth in 1992 (the top five teams made finals).
They were 11th (out of 15 teams) after round seven in 1993 and had to come from 42 points down at half-time in the preliminary final.
The average age of the "Baby Bombers" was just 24 years and 105 days when they defeated Carlton. In comparison, the average age of Carlton's playing group was 25.4 years.
The average age of premiership teams from the past 20 years has been 26.2 years.
What made this win even more remarkable was Essendon had six players with fewer than 25 AFL games. The average for premiership teams over the past two decades has been 126.7 games.
Track record between clubs or seasons
#9 - 2017 Richmond defeated Adelaide
Richmond completed the greatest one-year turnaround in VFL/AFL history when they won the 2017 decider.
The Tigers rose from 13th on the ladder in 2016 to secure their first premiership in 37 years in 2017.
Richmond upset Adelaide, who finished top of the ladder and were favourites to win the grand final. The Crows had also beaten Richmond by 76 points when they met earlier in 2017.
The relentless pressure of Richmond's "mosquito fleet" (players shorter than 183cm) was a key to victory on grand final day.
#8 - 1972 Carlton defeated Richmond
Carlton had not beaten Richmond in a final since 1920 and their recent record was ten straight losses to Richmond.
The Blues had also lost all four games against the Tigers that year.
They surprised the highly favoured Richmond team with a "strategic triumph" that involved playing numerous players in different positions.
This was the highest-scoring grand final of all time, with 327 combined points. Carlton kicked 28 goals in their win.
#7 - 1970 Carlton defeated Collingwood
Collingwood was favourite for the grand final, as the Magpies finished top of the ladder and defeated Carlton three times in the 1970 season, including by 77 points in round 19.
This match was also recognised as the greatest grand final comeback in AFL/VFL history, and featured one of the greatest marks of the 20th century. It also had the biggest ever VFL/AFL crowd of 121,696 spectators.
After trailing by 44 points at half-time, Ron Barrassi's instructions to play on and handball in the second half were credited for helping Carlton's upset win.
#6 - 2008 Hawthorn defeated Geelong
Geelong won the 2007 premiership by 119 points and would eventually win the 2009 premiership.
Meeting the team with the youngest recorded average playing age in the competition was all that stood in the way for the highly favoured Cats in the 2008 grand final.
Geelong had finished four games clear on top of the ladder in 2008, only losing once all season.
Yet a combination of Geelong's poor kicking for goal, Hawthorn's hard running and clever coaching led to an unexpected victory for the team described as "resembling the baby bombers".
#5 - 1958 Collingwood defeated Melbourne
Between 1955 and 1960, Melbourne blitzed the competition, winning five of the six premierships on offer, two of them over Collingwood.
In the middle of this Melbourne dominance, and having lost to the Demons in their semi-final, Collingwood achieved "the miracle of '58".
Collingwood's victory stopped Melbourne winning six premierships in a row. It would be the Magpies' last flag for 32 years, and has been described as their "best ever".
Ladder positioning
#4 - 1998 Adelaide defeated North Melbourne
Between 1902 and 1971, the VFL had a top four finals system, which expanded to include at least the top five teams from 1972, and evolved to become a top eight from 1994.
Described as imposters and up against the future 1999 premiers, Adelaide became the first team from outside the top four to win the premiership since 1900.
They did so despite facing a deficit of 24 points at half-time.
During the grand final, North Melbourne set the record for the most inaccurate kicking for goal in VFL/AFL grand final history, with eight goals and 22 behinds.
#3 - 1900 Melbourne defeated Fitzroy
During 1900, the regular season positions did not count when finals arrived, meaning all teams qualified to play finals.
Fitzroy was the dominant force in the league and were two games clear on top of the ladder with 11 wins and just three losses.
They were described by most spectators as being a "certainty" to secure their third consecutive premiership.
Yet Melbourne, which finished sixth (out of eight teams) during the regular season with five fewer victories, went on to win all of their finals games and toppled Fitzroy in the grand final.
It was such a surprise that an overhaul of the VFL finals system was made within just two seasons to limit the finals to the top four teams.
#2 - 1916 Fitzroy defeated Carlton
The impacts of war resulted in just four teams playing in 1916.
During the regular season, Fitzroy lost nine in a row and ended up with the wooden spoon.
Despite finishing last on the reduced ladder, Fitzroy won every finals match and overcame ladder leaders Carlton to take the 1916 premiership.
The upset was even more extraordinary considering Fitzroy was without league-leading goalkicker Jimmy Freake and forward Jim Toohey. Both had combined for almost half of Fitzroy's goals over the preceeding four seasons.
Fitzroy defeated Carlton twice in the finals, having lost three consecutive in-season games to them and overcoming a half-time grand final deficit.
#1 - 2016 Western Bulldogs defeated Sydney
Ending a 62-year premiership drought, the Bulldogs came from seventh on the ladder to claim their first flag since 1954.
The Bulldogs' journey to the grand final was nothing short of challenging.
After commencing their finals campaign with one of the longest trips in football to take on West Coast in Perth, they then downed the reigning premiers Hawthorn at the MCG, preventing a fourth consecutive premiership for the Hawks.
The next stage of the journey involved travelling to Sydney for an epic preliminary final clash against Greater Western Sydney, resulting in the Bulldogs holding on in a nailbiting finish.
In the grand final, the Bulldogs came up against the top-of-the-table Sydney Swans, who had won eight of their final nine matches of the season. After trailing at half-time, the Bulldogs surged in the second half to victory.
Given the AFL expansions, professional transformation of the modern competition and the journey of finals battles across Australia for the 2016 Western Bulldogs, this ranks as the greatest achievement in the history of grand final upsets.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
