With just three weeks to go before the election, former President Donald Trump is holding steady in Texas, with 51% of likely voters saying they will vote for the Republican nominee on Nov. 5. That compares to 46% who say they will vote for Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.
The latest survey by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston found attitudes among likely Texas voters unchanged since a survey conducted in August, just weeks after Harris entered the race, when Trump also led by about five points.
In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is leading Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Colin Allred 50% to 46%. Cruz led by just two points in August.
"Trump has made significant inroads with Latino voters, nationally and in Texas," said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. "We found that 48% of Texas Latinos support Trump, while 47% plan to vote for Harris. That's a major shift for a group that has traditionally leaned Democratic. Added to Trump's strength with men, white voters, older voters and those without a college education, it's clear that Texas remains solidly Republican."
Harris leads among women (51% to 46% for Trump), Black voters (84% to 14%), young voters (61% to 38%) and those with a college degree.
"But her margins with those voters are too small to offset Trump's lead among traditional Republican constituencies," said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. "While Trump leads with men by 15 points, for example, Harris's lead with women is just five points. Similarly, he leads 61% to 37% among voters with only a high school diploma, while Harris' lead among those with a college degree is just 51% to 45%."
Trump and Cruz also hold a modest edge with independent voters, who favor Trump 41% to 35%, with 20% undecided, and Cruz 48% to 42%, with 5% undecided.
Almost two thirds of Texas voters, 62%, said they believe the United States is on the wrong track. That rises to 87% among Republicans and 80% among independents. While just 34% of Democrats agree, pessimism about the direction of the country is spread among a variety of demographic groups, including 68% of white voters, 59% of Latino voters and 38% of Black voters.
Among the survey's other findings:
- Incumbent Republican Christi Craddick is leading in the race for Texas Railroad Commission with support from 48% of likely voters, while Democratic challenger Katherine Culbert has 41%.
- Voters list the economy (31%), immigration and border security (22%) and the future of U.S. democracy (20%) as the top issue in the campaign. Abortion was listed as the top issue by 7% of voters, while guns, U.S. Supreme Court appointments, foreign policy, crime, energy policy and housing all were cited by 2% or fewer likely voters.
- 34% of Harris voters said their vote is primarily a vote against Trump; 20% of Trump voters said the same about Harris.
- Voters are split on whether they like the candidates – half say they have a favorable opinion of Trump (38% very favorable) and half have an unfavorable opinion (45% very unfavorable.) 49% have a favorable opinion of Harris (34% very favorable) and 51% unfavorable (46% very unfavorable).
- 50% have a favorable opinion of Cruz, while 48% have an unfavorable opinion (40% very unfavorable). 46% have a favorable opinion of Allred, while 42% have an unfavorable opinion (29% very unfavorable).
- 59% of Texans plan to vote early, while 32% say they will vote on Election Day. 8% will vote by mail.
- 72% of Harris voters plan to vote early or by mail, compared to only 62% of Trump voters. 36% of Trump voters plan to vote on Election Day, compared to 28% of Harris voters.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The survey was conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 10 in English and Spanish. The margin of error is +/-2.69%. Future reports will cover Harris County elections, election integrity and administration, and attitudes about electricity infrastructure and distribution in Harris County.
Story by Jeannie Kever
