A new survey of likely Texas voters found former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by nine points in the state, 49% to 40%, with four months to go until the November election.
The survey, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration program in the Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, found attitudes unchanged since January, when a Hobby School survey also found Trump leading Biden, 49% to 40%.
Trump drew support in the latest survey from a broad spectrum of Texans, including a slight lead among Latino voters, who support Trump over Biden 45% to 41%. The survey found 5% of likely voters support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while 2% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein; 4% are undecided.
The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat U.S. Rep. Colin Allred has tightened over the past five months, with Cruz now holding a three-point lead, 47% to 44%. Cruz led by nine points last winter.
The survey was conducted between June 20 and July 1 – after Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts by a Manhattan jury, while about one-third of responses were collected following the June 27 debate between Trump and Biden.
"Even after Trump's conviction, and all of the concerns over Biden's age, his poor debate performance and Kennedy's high-profile entrance into the race, voters haven't changed their minds about the candidates," said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School. "Voters know these candidates, and little seems likely to sway their opinions."
That held true even though 51% of likely voters said they believe Trump is guilty of the crimes for which he was convicted, Cross said. Another 35% said they believe the former president is not guilty, while 14% said they are unsure.
In fact, 92% of Trump voters and 94% of Biden voters said they are certain they won't change their mind before the Nov. 5 election. Partisan identity remains strong, with 92% of Republicans saying they will vote for Trump and 86% of Democrats supporting Biden. Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden among Independents, with 42% of the Independent vote, compared to 18% for Biden. An additional 14% of Independents say they will vote for Kennedy, and 16% are undecided.
"Overall, we found Trump leading among most demographic groups in Texas, with the strongest support among men, white voters and older voters," said Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School. "The only exceptions were Black voters, who supported Biden by a margin of 57 points (73% to 16%), and Millennial voters, who gave Biden a smaller edge, 46% to 40% for Trump."
White voters supported Trump by more than 20 points, 56% to 35%. Latino voters split more narrowly, with 45% supporting Trump and 41% supporting Biden.
Four out of 10 Trump voters identified immigration and border security as the top issue in the race, while just 4% of Biden voters agreed. Among Biden voters, 27% said the future of U.S. democracy is the top issue; 4% of Trump voters said the same. Overall, Jones said, voters listed immigration and border security (23%), the economy (15%), inflation (15%) and the future of U.S. democracy (13%) as the issue that is most important to their presidential vote decision.
While the Trump-Biden matchup has remained unchanged for months, there has been a notable shift in the race for U.S. Senate, with Allred inching closer to Cruz, running for his third term in the Senate.
"Earlier in the year, especially before Allred secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary, he was more of an unknown quantity," said Michael O. Adams, director of the Executive Master of Public Administration graduate program at TSU. "As a congressman from Dallas, he wasn't well-known in the rest of the state, but as a result of winning the primary and months of campaigning and advertising, his name ID has increased, and support has nudged up by five points."
Libertarian Ted Brown had 3% of the vote in that race, while 6% are undecided.
Among other findings:
- 50% of likely voters said they have a favorable opinion of Trump, slightly more than the 49% with an unfavorable opinion of the former president.
- 44% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, notably less than the 55% who have an unfavorable opinion of the president.
- 42% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris, notably less than the 56% who have an unfavorable opinion of her.
- 49% of likely voters said they have a favorable impression of Cruz, while 48% ranked him unfavorably. 46% had a favorable impression of Allred, while 31% had an unfavorable impression. Another 23% said they did not know enough about Allred to form an impression.
- Republican incumbent Christi Craddick is leading her challengers in the race for Texas Railroad Commission, with 41% of the vote. Democrat Katherine Culbert has 35%, while Libertarian Hawk Dunlap and Green Party candidate Eddie Espinoza are tied at 3% each. 18% are undecided.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The survey was conducted between June 20 and July 1 and was conducted in English and Spanish, with 2,257 YouGov respondents 18 years of age and older. The margin of error is +/-2.1 for the overall survey population and +/- 2.5 for the sub-population of 1,484 likely voters. Future reports will look at school choice/vouchers, housing, immigration and climate challenges.
