While climate change is likely to present significant challenges to agriculture in coming decades, it could also mean that crops such as chickpeas, soyabeans and oranges are widely grown across the UK, and home-produced hummus, tofu and marmalade are a common sight on our supermarket shelves by 2080.
A new study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) in collaboration with the University of East Anglia (UEA) predicts that future warmer temperatures in this country would be suitable for a variety of produce such as oranges, chickpeas and okra that are traditionally grown in warmer parts of the world.
Scientists investigated the future suitability for over 160 existing and new food crops in different regions of the UK under warming scenarios of 2 and 4 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
The modelling study, part of the OpenCLIM research project, is the most comprehensive research of its kind to date and is also the first to show how suitability for certain produce will vary across the UK. It provides mapped projections for every 1km square in the UK, giving valuable information to the farming and food sectors on the future opportunities and challenges of cultivating new crops here.
Need for resilience
Lead author Dr John Redhead, a Spatial Ecologist at UKCEH, said: "Our climate is expected to change substantially over coming decades at a time when there will be rising demand for food due to population growth. It is therefore essential that arable farming becomes more resilient; one possible solution is growing different crops that are more suited to the new local conditions."
Climate change is already having a major impact on UK agriculture, either affecting crop plants or the ability of farmers to manage them effectively. There have been several years of record low yields caused by extreme weather, often in combination, such as a wet winter followed by a particularly dry spring, while new agricultural pests and diseases are becoming established or increasing with climate change.
Winners and losers
Many new crops highlighted in the UKCEH-led study – funded by UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) and published in the journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability – are not only more tolerant of hotter, drier summers but also benefit from milder, wetter winters.
The research looked at whether future climate scenarios would be more or less suitable for crops, compared with recent average UK temperatures, estimated at being around 0.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. The key findings were:
- Climate change results in increased suitability for many current and potential new crops across much of the UK.
- However, some key produce is likely to become harder to grow in the South East and East Anglia, the UK's most productive arable regions. The climate in these areas is expected to become less suitable for wheat and strawberries under the 2 degrees of warming scenario, while 4 degrees of warming would result in reduced suitably for other major crops including onions and oats.
- There would be substantial increases in suitability for a broad range of crops not currently widely grown in the UK – such as sunflower, durum wheat, soybeans, cow peas, chickpeas, citrus fruit and okra – as well as wine grapes.
Diversity offers multiple benefits
The study authors say the majority of global food supply relies on a relatively small number of crops, and greater diversity would boost food security by improving climate resilience.
There would also be potentially positive impacts on wider biodiversity and people's diets. Legumes such as chickpeas and soybeans, which have recently had their first commercial UK harvests, are important protein sources. This would support shifts from heavy meat consumption to a more balanced diet and lower carbon footprint. Legumes also add nitrogen to the soil, reducing the reliance on fertilisers.
Risks and challenges
While a changing climate across the UK is expected to support a range of new crops, the study shows the largest increases in suitability will be in the southwest and Scottish borders due to the benefits of rising temperatures not being cancelled out by more restricted water in the summer, especially under 4 degrees of warming.
However, many areas outside the South East and East Anglia have small field sizes, variable topography and are far from the current food processing and supply chains, limiting potential shifts in production to these regions. There are also economic risks investing in new agronomic practices and technology, and potential environmental risks in introducing crops to new locations, including interactions with pollinators, wild crop relatives and pests.
Dr Redhead said: "Clearly, it's unlikely to be feasible just to switch large-scale food production from Britain's agricultural heartlands of southeastern England to Scotland, for example. However, climate change is happening now, and its impacts will increase by 2080, so whatever action is taken will involve big challenges in terms of where our food comes from and the way our agricultural landscapes are managed."
Solutions
Methods to cope with the challenges highlighted in the study include:
- Further research into the viability of the crops that are identified as 'winners'.
- Changing our agricultural supply and distribution networks to better support farmers growing new crops in new locations.
- Adopting new agricultural systems such as paludiculture (wet farming) and indoor vertical farming.
- Breeding and growing more heat- or drought-resilient varieties of existing staple crops.
No-one can definitively say whether a certain crop will be possible or profitable in 2080, but the study addresses the gap in knowledge about climatic suitability of crops in particular regions, which is currently limiting uptake of new produce.
Study co-author Professor Rachel Warren of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA said: "Without such data, agricultural systems are likely to be 'locked in' to current crops, with adaptations failing to keep pace with climate change or relying on practices that exacerbate its impacts, such as heavy irrigation that would increase water scarcity.
"Major changes to agricultural systems and diets can take decades to implement and so our long-term projections provide important information well ahead of time for farmers, supermarkets, researchers, policymakers and the public on the opportunities, challenges and trade-offs involved in adapting to the impacts of climate change."
The study authors say their horizon-scanning approach on how climate change affects suitability of crops could be transferable to other countries.
