As the war in Gaza approaches its seventh month, the poverty rate in the State of Palestine continues to escalate, reaching 58.4 percent, thrusting nearly 1.74 million additional people into poverty, as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sustains a staggering plunge by 26.9 percent-a loss of US$7.1 billion from a 2023 no-war baseline-according to new estimates by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).
Today, both UNDP and ESCWA released an update of their joint initial rapid assessment titled 'The Gaza War: Expected Socio-Economic Impacts on the State of Palestine', which was released in November 2023 and estimated the impacts of the war on the State of Palestine and on Gaza, for the first three months. The new updated assessment estimates the impacts at six months, with projections for seven-, eight- and nine-months scenarios.
"Every additional day that this war continues is exacting huge and compounding costs to Gazans and all Palestinians, now and in the medium and long term. Compared to our preliminary assessment, these new figures warn that the suffering in Gaza will not end when the war does," said UNDP Administrator, Achim Steiner. "Unprecedented levels of human losses, capital destruction, and the steep rise in poverty in such a short period of time will precipitate a serious development crisis that jeopardizes the future of generations to come."
According to projections, in a scenario where the war continues for nine months, poverty is estimated to more than double (increasing to 60.7 percent, 2.25 times of pre-war levels), raising the number of additional people pushed into poverty to more than 1.86 million, while the decrease of GDP would reach 29 percent with total losses of US$7.6 billion. The assessment also warns of a sharp decline in the Human Development Index (HDI), UNDP's summary measure of wellbeing, as the setback in human development in the State of Palestine may exceed two decades-to earlier than 2004, when the HDI was first calculated for the State of Palestine.
The UNDP-ESCWA updated assessment complements results of the Joint Interim Damage Assessment recently released by the World Bank and the United Nations, which indicated that direct damages inflicted on Gaza's built infrastructure as of January 2024, amount to approximately US$18.5 billion, equivalent to 97 percent of the total GDP of the State of Palestine in 2022.
The updated assessment was presented at a meeting that brought together directors of key United Nations agencies in the Arab States region to discuss how different regional actors can best support efforts of the UN Country Team in the occupied Palestinian territory for recovery assessment and planning. UNDP, as lead agency on early recovery, has been working closely with UN agencies and national partners to plan and prepare for commencing early recovery in Gaza and the West Bank, including east Jerusalem, without delay as conditions allow.
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