Accelerating economic recovery is critical to reverse Syria's decline and restore stability, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) said in a report published on Thursday.
Fourteen years of conflict have unravelled nearly four decades of economic, social and development progress. Today, nine out of 10 Syrians are living in poverty, and one in four is jobless.
The report warns that at current growth rates, the economy will not regain its pre-conflict GDP level before 2080, or 55 years from now.
Invest in development
"Beyond immediate humanitarian aid, Syria's recovery requires long-term investment in development to build economic and social stability for its people," UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said in a press release.
"Restoring productivity for jobs and poverty relief, revitalizing agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services such as healthcare, education and energy are key to a self-sustaining future, prosperity, and peace," he added.
Deaths and disasppearances
The Syrian civil war erupted in March 2011 following pro-democracy protests against President Bashar Al-Assad, whose regime was toppled in December 2024.
Nearly 618,000 lives were reportedly lost, UNDP said, making it among the deadliest conflicts in recent history. Some 113,000 people were forcibly disappeared whose fate remains unknown.
More than 7.2 million people are displaced within Syria and another six million are living abroad as refugees. Together, they represent more than half the population.
Economic growth declines
In 2010, Syria's GDP was $62 billion but has shrunk by more than half, with an estimated $800 billion loss over the conflict.
Average growth over the past five years stood at 1.3 per cent annually. If this continues, it will take 55 years to restore pre-conflict GDP levels. For recovery to take 10 years, annual economic growth would have to rise six-fold.
Other impacts include rising poverty, which has nearly tripled from 33 per cent before the conflict to 90 per cent today. Extreme poverty has also jumped from 11 per cent to 66 per cent, a six-fold increase.
Furthermore, between 40 to 50 per cent of children aged six to 15 are not attending school, and 5.4 million people have lost their jobs.
Millions need homes
Meanwhile, 80 per cent of energy capacity has been lost. Syria generated around 9,000 megawatts in 2010 which has dropped to less than 1,500 megawatts today. Seventy per cent of power plants have been damaged and 75 per cent of national grid capacity has been lost.
"Out of 5.5 million homes in 2010, 328,000 homes fully destroyed, and one out of three houses destroyed or damaged, which means we have 5.7 million people who need shelter support," said Abdallah Al Dardari, UNDP's Assistant Administrator and Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States.
'Stark' development losses
Speaking to journalists in New York, he said the "most stark number" has been the decline in the Human Development Index (HDI), a summary measure of development combining health, education and income indicators.
Syria's HDI today is less than it was in 1990, indicating 40 years of loss in human development. The report cautions that the road ahead is challenging and lays out several scenarios.
"We can work hard to achieve a recovery in 10 years' time, with 7.6 per cent annual growth rate," said Mr. Al Dardari. Achieving recovery in 15 years would require five percent annual growth, while returning to a no-conflict scenario calls for nearly 14 per cent annual growth.
Strategy and engagement
UNDP said the way forward demands a comprehensive strategy addressing governance reform, economic stabilisation, sector revitalisation, infrastructure rebuilding, and strengthened social services.
Mr. Al Dardari said most of the figures in the report have been presented to senior officials from Syria's caretaker authorities in both group and bilateral meetings. It will officially be presented to them on Friday.
"In addition to this report, we will be also starting a serious engagement on the recovery and reconstruction offer," he said.
