Governments worldwide must urgently commit to reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to avoid surpassing the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C global warming target, warns a new report released by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) today.
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024: No More Hot Air… Please! highlights that unless global action accelerates, the world is on track for temperature increases between 2.6°C and 3.1°C by the end of the century. Even the best-case scenario of 2.6°C will bring severe consequences for people, the planet, and economies.
"Climate crunch time is here," says Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director. "We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before - starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges - or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit."
The report emphasizes the necessity of bold, rapid action. Countries are expected to submit their updated NDCs by early next year, ahead of COP30 in Brazil. Without enhanced ambition and immediate implementation, the report projects that even with full implementation of current NDCs, global warming will reach 2.6°C. Under current policies, temperatures could rise as high as 3.1°C by 2100.
"To maintain a pathway to 1.5°C, global emissions must fall by 7.5% per year until 2035, a big challenge given that emissions reached a record high of 57.1 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2023. This report underscores that delayed action will only increase the magnitude of the cuts required, and the longer nations wait, the steeper the reductions needed to meet climate targets," explains Joeri Rogelj, a senior researcher in the IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program.
The authors estimate that reducing global emissions by 52% by 2030, and 41 gigatons by 2035, is technically achievable with a cost of less than $200 per ton of CO2 equivalent. Accelerating the deployment of solar, wind energy, and forest preservation could account for 27% of the total emission cuts by 2030, while efficiency measures and electrification in key sectors can deliver further reductions.
However, achieving these milestones will require unprecedented international collaboration, a minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment, and comprehensive reforms of the global financial system with G20 nations, who are responsible for over three-quarters of global emissions, bearing a special responsibility.
"The report emphasizes that the largest emitters must lead the way. While the inclusion of the African Union in the G20 raises the number of countries in the block from 44 to 99, their collective emissions only increase by 5%. This highlights the need for differentiated responsibilities and stronger international climate finance," notes IIASA Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions Research Group Leader, Shonali Pachauri, a member of the report Steering Committee and a contributing author. "To meet these ambitious goals, NDCs should be clear, specific, and transparent, covering all greenhouse gases and sectors, with mechanisms for implementation and accountability."
Additionally, the report states that emerging economies must outline the international support and financing required to align their climate and development objectives.
"Even if the world overshoots 1.5°C - and the chances of this happening are increasing every day - we must keep striving for a low-carbon, sustainable and prosperous world," said UNEP's Andersen. "Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved, and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot."
The authors call on all nations to seize the opportunity at the upcoming COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, to bolster their commitments, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and push forward with the radical action needed to preserve a livable future for all.
