Unions Shifting Conservative? Ontario Endorsements Analyzed

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has secured a third consecutive majority government for the Progressive Conservative Party .

Despite attacks on public sector unions through laws deemed unconstitutional and extensive privatization plans , Ford managed to increase endorsements from labour unions during his campaign.

Police and firefighter unions endorsed the Ontario PCs and Ford continued to build support in private sector unions. The Carpenters' Regional Council , UNITE HERE! Local 75 representing hotel workers and some Unifor Local groups endorsed the party for the first time. Ford centred this union support in much of his media campaign material.

Conservatives now claim we are in the middle of a "movement" of workers away from the New Democratic Party, which has historically been seen as the party of labour , toward both federal and provincial conservative parties.

Former Conservative Party of Canada leader Erin O'Toole reached out to workers in the last federal election and current Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, continues to do so .

However, the actual extent of union support for Ford must be put into context. There is no evidence to suggest a major political re-alignment of unions with conservative parties. At the same time, the ability of Ford's brand of populism to engage with a strategic transactionalism in some unions is a serious challenge to labour movement solidarity.

The truth behind union support

While researchers have observed a shifting relationship between unions and the NDP, it varies greatly by sector and region. Although some affiliates endorsed Ford, the Ontario Federation of Labour, representing 54 unions, publicly supported the NDP .

Local autonomy is part of a democratic labour movement, and many of the endorsements for Ford came from union locals, not the entirety of a union's membership.

Some unions have policies of not endorsing any party, while others allow endorsements by union locals of individual candidates. More importantly, even if unions decide to endorse a candidate or party, individual members vote for whoever they want. Union members continue to vote in complex and contradictory ways, and they can be swayed by populist politicians as much as any other voter.

Right-wing populism presents a challenge to unions whose members are not isolated from populist politics. Ford's brand of populism has proven effective in attracting and dividing organized labour, especially public versus private sector union members. He uses populist rhetoric to challenge public sector unions while making more moderate overatures to non-union and private sector workers.

This pivoting populism has proven effective. Promises of a " buck-a-beer " and allowing liquor into corner stores appeals to workers while potentially reducing unionized jobs at LCBO outlets and government revenue for health care and education.

Ford has also demonstrated the ability to shift his populist message when needed. He quickly positioned himself as a leading voice against tariffs proposed by United States President Donald Trump. He successfully engaged a nationalist economic populism defending workers, specifically in Ontario's manufacturing sector.

Despite being caught saying he was "100 per cent" happy with Trump's victory , he pivoted to a message that muzzled, at least temporarily, the racist, anti-immigrant, anti-transgender and anti-climate change sentiments of Trumpian populism.

Ford's folksy rhetoric was flexible enough to maintain his appeal. Union leaders representing workers supportive of Ford, especially in the private sector, either felt pressure to reflect their members politics or were supportive themselves. As a result, some unions were more open to being transactional with the Ontario PCs than in the past.

Transactional approach to politics

In their recent book Shifting Gears , labour experts Stephanie Ross and Larry Savage document Unifor's shift toward a more transactional approach when dealing with political parties. They argue the union abandoned its traditional party-union alliance with the NDP for more pragmatic relationships with those in power.

Transactional politics are increasingly practised by many unions , and Ford has used it to his advantage. Private sector unions in the building trades and hospitality industries that endorsed Ford have secured millions in training funds from the government.

For example, on Jan. 25, the Carpenter's Regional Council announced it received $14 million from Ontario's Skills Development Fund to train 1,500 workers. Less than a month later, the Ontario PCs announced it received the council's endorsement .

Ford's transactional relationships with unions are not without growing pains. Several unions that supported the Ontario PCs in the 2022 election condemned Bill 28 , which would have removed the right to strike for 55,000 educational workers. After thousands walked off the job in response, the government withdrew the bill .

Here, we see a broader form of transactional politics in play. If Ford wanted to maintain even minimal union support, he had to recognize basic rights for unionized workers.

The current levels of union support for the Ontario PCs may have an exaggerated significance. After all, the Conservatives only slightly increased their popular vote and lost three seats, dropping to 80 from 83. Similarly, the NDP remains the official opposition, but had their seat count and popular vote diminished , while the Liberals increased both.

The future of labour

Shifting union support for political parties can have an impact, as unions have people and resources that can be allocated to campaigns. But there are limits to the union support conservative parties can build.

First, much of this support is driven by right-wing populism, which can fade over time. The traditional conservative business community can reinstate neoliberal policies that restricts unions and their power.

Second, transactional politics that use taxpayer money are expensive for governments. After all, not every union can be awarded a new training centre.

Perhaps the most significant implications are for the future of the labour movement itself. The politics between unions that collaborate with right-wing populists and those who are attacked by them remain divisive as labour leaders have publicly debated the issue . At what point will the fissures erupt and threaten overall solidarity?

It may be time for the labour movement to go on the offensive against support for right-wing populists among their own memberships - the unions giving endorsements in exchange for resources and the bare minimum, in terms of union recognition.

At this juncture, this will be a struggle. Union political education has always been a challenge, and it's more difficult in the era of right-wing legacy and social media. Any attempt by central labour bodies, such as the Ontario Federation of Labour, to sanction or expel affiliates who support right-wing parties would have high political costs.

But accommodating, rather than confronting, right-wing populist sentiments among workers and maintaining inter-union solidarity may eventually lead to the movement and political realignment conservatives are hoping for.

Steven Tufts receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He also sits on the board of an organisation that has recevied past funding from the Ontario Skills Development Fund mentioned in the article.