In what appears to be backpedaling from its previous stance, the United States has moved to re-establish 'business as usual' with Azerbaijan following a period of strained relations caused by the 'no business as usual' remarks made by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien.
According to media statements by both the U.S. Department of State and the office of Azerbaijan's President, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken reached out to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Monday to signal a U.S. intent to resume high-level engagements.
Interestingly, the United States plans to dispatch James O'Brien himself to Azerbaijan in a direct effort to alleviate the tension caused by his statement.
Diplomatic Tensions Over O'Brien's Remarks
The recent diplomatic friction stemmed from O’Brien’s comments during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on November 15, 2023. He criticized Azerbaijan’s actions in the Karabakh region and announced the cancellation of high-level bilateral meetings and engagements with Azerbaijan.
"Given this new reality, the Department has made it clear to Azerbaijan that there cannot be “business as usual” in our bilateral relationship", O’Brien said according to a transcript posted by the committee.
His remarks, perceived as biased and one-sided by Baku, led to Azerbaijan canceling a scheduled meeting with Armenia in Washington and barring senior U.S. officials from visiting Baku.
Blinken's Olive Branch to Aliyev
In a conversation with President Aliyev on November 27, Blinken acknowledged the impact of the Azerbaijan-Armenia long-standing conflict on both Azerbaijanis and Armenians and stressed the benefits of peace in the region.
"The Secretary discussed our enduring relations with Azerbaijan, noted recent points of concern in the relationship and also spoke about opportunities to strengthen cooperation, especially around the peace process, and the importance of high-level engagement," State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement.
Aliyev's Response
The statement from President Aliyev’s office sheds light on the nuances of the conversation with Blinken.
"During the telephone conversation, President Ilham Aliyev said that the latest statements and actions taken by the U.S. have seriously damaged Azerbaijan-U.S. relations", said the office of Azerbaijani President in a detailed statement in English.
"The head of state noted that the remarks about our country by ... James O’Brien were biased, failed to reflect reality and were rejected by Azerbaijan.
"Azerbaijani side took note of the statement about canceling the senior-level engagements with Azerbaijan and “no chance of business as usual”, and responded adequately,.. canceled all senior-level visits from the U.S.," Azerbaijan's President told Blinken, according to the statement.
"Secretary Blinken has asked to allow the visit of the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James O’Brien in December to Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev has agreed to this proposal on the condition that after this visit the unfounded ban on the visits of Azerbaijani high-level officials to the United States will be lifted. Secretary Blinken has accepted that [condition]," the statement reads.
Looking Ahead
Armenia, traditionally aligned with Russia in the South Caucasus, has recently sought to strengthen ties with Western nations. This shift follows accusations that the Kremlin failed to provide necessary military support against Azerbaijan. Distracted in Ukraine, Russia has found itself in a difficult situation, cautious its actions against Azerbaijan might also upset Turkey, one of few European countries it has managed to maintain trade with in the face of Western sanctions.
The U.S.'s attempt to quickly repair high-level engagements with Azerbaijan reflects the urgency of using the current momentum to ramp up influence in the South Caucasus and mediating the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The willingness of both Azerbaijan and Armenia to engage in dialogue, despite recent war, suggests a cautious optimism for the resumption of peace negotiations and the stabilization of regional dynamics.
However, the outcome of O’Brien's forthcoming visit and the response of both Azerbaijan and Armenia to these diplomatic efforts will be critical in shaping the future of peace and cooperation in the region.
