PHILADELPHIA – Driven by political partisanship, public trust in the U.S. Supreme Court has continued a downward slide since the court's 2022 Dobbs decision overturning the Roe v. Wade ruling that established a constitutional right to abortion, according to a new survey by the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania.
More than half of Americans (56%) now disapprove of the Supreme Court, saying they trust it either "a little" or "not at all" to act in the best interest of "people like you," according to the nationally representative panel survey conducted in July and August 2024.
Support for the court stands at 44%, with 8% expressing "a great deal" of trust, 11% "a lot" of trust, and 25% "a moderate amount" of trust in the court to act in the best interest of people like you. It is the lowest overall level of trust since APPC began surveying the American public on this issue in 2005, when 75% of the public trusted the court.
Highlights
The new survey, conducted among a nationally representative sample of 1,395 adult U.S. citizens, was fielded July 12-August 12, 2024, following the court's 2023-24 term, which concluded on July 1 with the court's ruling in the Capitol insurrection case that Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts he took as president. The same sample of respondents was previously surveyed in May 2024, during the court term.
In August 2024, 44% overall have trust in the Supreme Court, about the same as 45% in May. But the 40-point spread in trust seen in May between Republicans and Democrats widened significantly to 47 points in August, with 71% of Republicans, 41% of independents, and 24% of Democrats having trust in the court to act in their best interest. Download the topline here.
Earlier APPC surveys found that trust in the court plummeted 22 points after the Dobbs decision, from 68% in 2019 to 46% in 2022. The current survey shows that after a modest rebound, trust has continued to slip, hitting 44% in August 2024. It also finds:
- Growing numbers have no trust in the court: Asked how much, if at all, do you trust the court to act in the best interest of people like you, 1 in 3 people (34%) in August say "not at all," up from 30% in May. In a 2005 APPC survey, only 7% did "not at all" trust the court, which shows a stunning increase in distrust over the past two decades.
- Partisan split growing even wider: Over the three-month period from May to August, partisan divisions in views of the court increased significantly. In May, the parties were divided, with Republicans seeing the Supreme Court more favorably, trusting it more, vesting greater legitimacy in it, and being less willing to endorse potential reforms to the court than Democrats and independents. After the court term, the gap separating Republicans from both Democrats and independents grew on each of these dimensions.
- Favorability drops in key swing states: Since 2021, APPC has reinterviewed the same set of respondents in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These data allow us to compare views of the court from 2021, before the court's Dobbs decision, to today, two years after that landmark ruling. Over that time, we have seen a dramatic decline in the public's view of the court – mostly from a decrease in support from both Democrats and independents.
"This underscores how Dobbs has fundamentally shifted views of the court," said University of Pennsylvania political science professor Matthew Levendusky, the Stephen and Mary Baran Chair in the Institutions of Democracy at the Annenberg Public Policy Center and director of the survey. "For many years, the court was held in high esteem by all Americans across partisan lines, but no more – that polarization emerged after Dobbs, and the court's rulings since then have done little to change these perceptions."
Partisan differences in attitudes toward the court
For decades, the Supreme Court had been seen as one of the few institutions respected by Republicans and Democrats alike. In a journal article this year, Annenberg Public Policy Center researchers said the court had been primarily regarded as a legal institution, not a political one, strengthened by its "norms, processes, symbols, and independence," and was therefore afforded greater public trust and legitimacy than other institutions. (See "Has the Supreme Court become just another political branch? Public perceptions of court approval and legitimacy in a post-Dobbs world" in Science Advances.)
A second article this year by APPC researchers found that declining trust in the Supreme Court was mirrored in the federal judiciary, with the percentage of Americans with either "a great deal" or "a fair amount" of trust and confidence in the judicial branch falling to under 50% in 2022 from 75% in 2000. (See "The withering of public confidence in the courts" in Judicature.)
This year, APPC surveyed a nationally representative sample of adult U.S. citizens during and after the most recent Supreme Court term in, respectively, May and August 2024. These national surveys found that:
- Favorability increased slightly among Republicans but decreased among both independents and Democrats.
- Trust: Republicans placed greater trust in the court, though trust dropped among Democrats and independents.
