The study, published in the journal Addiction and funded by Cancer Research UK, looked at survey data on vaping habits in England, Wales and Scotland before and after the UK Government announced plans to restrict vaping, including by banning disposable vapes, in January 2024.
The team found that the proportion of people vaping increased by nearly a quarter each year from January 2022 to January 2024, but stayed constant between January 2024 and January this year, including for young people.
After January 2024, they also found a substantial decline in the proportion of vapers mainly using disposable e-cigarettes. Among 16- to 24-year-olds, the proportion mainly using disposables almost halved, from 63% to 35%.
Lead author Dr Sarah Jackson (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care) said: "Action is likely still required to reduce high vaping rates, but now that the situation has stabilised policymakers may be reassured that it would be sensible to avoid stricter policy options currently under review. Some of the options being considered may be more likely to have the unintended consequence of deterring smokers from using vapes to quit smoking.
"Our results also suggest that the Government's ban on disposables, coming into force in June, may have limited impact on vaping rates in general, given that vapers are already moving away from disposable vapes. It seems likely that people using these products will move to re-usable versions rather than stop vaping completely.
"The study highlights the value of up-to-date information about vaping and smoking trends, which allow policies to be based on the best possible evidence.
"The research cannot tell us why vaping rates have levelled off, but we have in the past seen changes in smoking habits before a policy change, with people adapting their behaviour in anticipation of a new policy."
The UK Government announced plans to ban disposable vapes in January 2024. This ban will come into force on 1 June this year. The Tobacco and Vapes Bill, currently working its way through Parliament, includes powers to potentially restrict the packaging, marketing and flavours of vapes.
Senior author Professor Jamie Brown (UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care) said: "While it is understandable that policymakers want to take action to reduce vaping among children and never smokers, smoking remains the number one public health priority. These findings should reassure policymakers that they can prioritise measures, such as restrictions on marketing, packaging and display, which are least likely to undermine how helpful vapes are for people trying to quit smoking. It is important that these measures are introduced alongside other messaging and policies that continue to encourage and support smokers to quit smoking, such as mass media campaigns and the swap to stop scheme."
For the study, researchers used data from the Smoking Toolkit Study, an ongoing survey that interviews a different representative sample of adults in England, Wales and Scotland each month. They looked at data collected between January 2022 and January 2025 from 88,611 people (16 and over).
They found that, between January 2022 and January 2024, the prevalence of vaping among those 16 and over increased from 8.9% to 13.5%. For those aged 16 to 24, prevalence increased from 17% to 26.5%.
In January 2024, nearly half (43.6%) of all vapers aged 16 and over mainly used disposables. This fell to less than a third (29.4%) a year later. The fall was steeper among 16- to 24-year-olds.
In study limitations, the researchers noted that the survey only asked vapers what device they mainly used, meaning that the proportion of vapers using disposables in some form would likely be higher. They also said it was possible people under-reported their use of disposable vapes following the Government's announcement.
