Almost nine out of ten voters who supported Donald Trump for US President believe that America's values, traditions and future economic prosperity are under threat – double the number of Kamala Harris supporters.
This is according to new data from Cambridge University's Political Psychology lab, who worked with YouGov to conduct an opinion poll of US voters shortly before the election.*
Some 89% of Trump voters agree that "American values and beliefs are being undermined and cherished traditions are under threat" compared to 45% of Harris voters.
Moreover, 87% of Trump voters agree that jobs in the US are "insecure right now and future prosperity is under threat" compared to just 39% of those who supported Harris.
Trump voters also scored higher, on average, than Harris voters in brief psychological tests for levels of authoritarianism, as well as for Social Dominance Orientation: a preference for hierarchy within social groups.
"A lot of media attention focuses on the specific things Trump says and whether they are truthful," said Dr Lee de-Wit, head of Cambridge's Political Psychology lab.
"Our results highlight that part of Trump's appeal is in the values he communicates, and the way in which he manages to respond more directly to the sense of threat perceived by many US voters," de-Wit said.
"These findings may help explain why Democrat attacks on Trump supporters resonated so strongly, from Clinton's 'basket of deplorables' to Biden's 'garbage' comment, because far more of Trump's base see their country's values and jobs as under threat already."
De-Wit points to recent research suggesting that voters in the UK are more likely to support candidates whose values and attitudes align with their own – an effect that outstrips left-right identification.
Both Democrat and Republican leaders repeatedly stated that a victory by the other side is dangerous for America, including in the closing arguments of the campaign.
Polling suggests that this resonated with the electorate. Large majorities in both camps felt their "way of life would be under threat" if the opposing candidate won (74% of Trump voters; 68% of Harris voters), suggesting high levels of mutual distrust.
"Psychological research suggests that across any population you will find that people respond differently to threat, whether perceived or real, and that their reactions are related to underlying psychological characteristics," said de-Wit.
For this reason, the Cambridge team asked voters to respond to scales measuring authoritarianism, as well as Social Dominance Orientation.
People who score highly on authoritarianism are concerned about enforcing in-group norms and respecting legitimate authority.
Meanwhile those high in Social Dominance Orientation care about the position of their in-group in relation to other groups. "They are sensitive to status, and often view the world as divided into winners and losers. They can be triggered by the idea that their group is slipping down the social and economic hierarchy."
Trump voters scored significantly higher than Harris voters for both characteristics.
De-Wit says these results are consistent with the work of Dr Karen Stenner, another political psychologist. "Stenner describes perceived threat as a trigger for an 'authoritarian dynamic'. When a group's norms are under threat they seek safety through greater conformity, punishment for norm breakers and the authority of a strong leader."
De-Wit and colleagues say this may partly explain why the famous "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) slogan plays so well with Trump voters, with 97% agreeing that "Americans should make our country great again", compared to only 42% of Harris voters.
"The words themselves invoke a perceived loss of status which would matter for those high in Social Dominance Orientation, while the sense of a shared mass movement that has grown up around MAGA would be appealing to those high in authoritarianism," said de-Wit.
While the MAGA slogan proved divisive across the voting public, Democrat slogans such as Harris' statement that Americans have "much more in common than what separates us" were viewed favourably by a majority of Trump (80%) and Harris (86%) voters alike.
"The broadly positive response across the board to the 'more in common' slogan suggests the Democrat appeal to unity was a popular one," said de-Wit. "Perhaps Democrats need to better understand how to speak to the real or perceived threats people face."
The statement that "Americans should put country over party", used by some Republicans, including former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, to explain why they were endorsing a Democrat, polled even better: 89% of both Harris and Trump supporters agreed with the slogan.
De-Wit points out that the two Democrat slogans that got over 80% in both camps are compatible with at least moderate levels of authoritarianism, as "more in common" reassures those who dislike division and "country over party" is an appeal to loyalty, albeit to a wider in-group.
Added de-Wit: "From Brexit to Trump, it is clear that those seeking to understand the dynamics of modern politics need to look beyond traditional political labels of left and right, and conventional demographics.
"We need to understand why some voters are feeling so threatened, and clearly politicians need to think deeply about how to respond to those threats."
NOTES:
*Responses from a sample of 1,089 US voters were gathered on 23-25 October 2024, and are nationally and politically representative. While the polling was conducted by YouGov, all analysis was undertaken by the Cambridge University's Political Psychology lab, and the survey was designed by Tessa Buchanan, Lee de-Wit and Malia Marks.
