What could be the final debate on Tuesday for this season-which pits the vice-presidential candidates-isn't likely to determine the election outcome, but offers the campaigns another chance to highlight certain issues.
Indeed, Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance will give voters another opportunity to learn about their campaigns since their bosses-Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, respectively-might not participate in a second debate, said Aaron Kall, the Lee H. Hess Director of Debate at the University of Michigan.
"A lot of eyes will be on this final contrast between the two candidates and they will be able to make their best arguments," said Kall, editor and co-author of "Debating The Donald."
What should each candidate focus on?
Vice-presidential selections and debates historically have a minor electoral impact. The backgrounds and life experiences of Tim Walz and JD Vance present a compelling contrast for an entertaining debate that will be viewed by tens of millions of Americans.
Both candidates will most importantly want to do no harm to their campaigns by committing a major gaffe that draws needless attention. Dan Quayle and James Stockdale are the best two examples of this phenomenon. Walz should focus on his Midwestern upbringing and unique biography as a coach and teacher. His folksy language and demeanor can be attractive to older blue-collar voters in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris performed admirably on the debate stage in Philadelphia and Walz should look to extend this campaign momentum as early voting ramps up in several battleground states. He will have plenty of ammunition to attack controversial statements from both Trump and Vance, and will likely come prepared to deliver several political zingers.
Vance has a higher degree of difficulty because he comes into the debate with underwater approval ratings, while hoping to provide a boost to the campaign. Bob Dole in 1976 and Joe Biden in 2012 faced similar expectations following poor debate performance from their running mates. Vance should tout his unique background and rapid political evolution. While Harris has moderated several policy positions recently, Walz has moved in the opposite direction in Minnesota. Unlike Trump, Vance should avoid getting drawn into personal attacks and instead focus on favorable issues like the economy, inflation and immigration.
What are your thoughts on the debate format?
CBS took a while to publicly announce the final rules, but they are fairly similar to the last presidential debates in June and September. There will again not be a live audience, so the candidates won't get any real-time feedback, and instead, must rely on their previous debate experience and political instincts.
Surprisingly, both candidates will be standing next to each other on Tuesday night. Vice-presidential debates are usually more informal events to encourage a civil conversation. 2008 was the last time vice presidential candidates weren't sitting on the debate stage. This format could contribute to more adversity throughout the evening, but both Walz and Vance are effective counterpunchers who can deliver deft political zingers with a smile. CBS will determine if and when candidate microphones will be muted during the debate. I predict the network will allow the more heated exchanges to be heard in full by the audience, which will produce a more compelling product overall.
No other debate has been scheduled as of now. Harris has said she would be willing to debate one more time, but Trump has declined. How likely will we see them debate again?
The operating assumption is the last political debate of this election cycle will occur on Tuesday night between Walz and Vance. Both candidates must deliver compelling closing arguments for their campaigns with Election Day five weeks away and early voting ramping up in some swing states. There are usually one or two additional presidential debates scheduled for October with a closer proximity to the election. 1980 was the last time that only one debate occurred between the two presidential nominees.
Trump had previously proposed two additional debates, but Harris wouldn't commit to anything else that far in advance. She quickly called for an October debate after a strong performance in Philadelphia, but Trump then got cold feet. He would probably only accept a debate sponsored by Fox News with friendly moderators like Sean Hannity. This seems like a bridge too far for the Harris campaign and unless the polls significantly widen, Trump is unlikely to risk another debate stage appearance. He infamously skipped an Iowa primary debate in 2016 and all the Republican primary debates in 2023. Trump has been known to change his mind repeatedly about the political debates and it may prove impossible for him to pass up another audience of 70 million viewers.
If this will be the final debate, what is your assessment of how the process has been with networks negotiating dates and terms with the presidential campaigns? In previous years, the debates have been organized by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, but in 2022 the GOP banned their nominees from working with the commission.
I think the television networks have done a pretty good job handling the two presidential debates this cycle. The Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960 were run by several different media organizations, so this move away from the Commission on Presidential Debates is a throwback to how it all started.
The no-live audience, split-screen shots and muting of microphones rule changes have been net positive and made the jobs of the debate moderators much easier. The last two debates have been substantive and issue-focused. I hope that all the major networks will get an opportunity to host presidential debates in the future for equity reasons. It was good to see all the networks engage in simulcasts of the debates so they could be seen by the widest audience possible.
The Commission on Presidential Debates will no doubt try to make a comeback in 2028, but regaining inertia may be difficult. They had a good run since they first hosted the debate in 1988, and sometimes change can be good and shake things up for the better.
