Rutgers-New Brunswick political experts discuss key issues, past trends and the crowded field of candidates
New Jersey's gubernatorial race is heating up with the first primary debates just around the corner.
Ten confirmed candidates are vying for the state's highest office. The Democratic debate is set for Sunday, Feb. 2, 2 at 7 p.m., followed by the Republican debate on Tuesday, Feb. 4. at 7 p.m.
Kristoffer Shields, director of the Rutgers Eagleton Center on the American Governor, and Ashley Koning, director of the Rutgers Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, weigh in on the race - and what voters can expect in the coming months.
Why is this year's gubernatorial race particularly notable for New Jerseyans?
Shields: This year's race is significant for New Jerseyans because we are guaranteed to elect a new governor. Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited and cannot run again, leaving the seat open, so no candidate will have the advantage of being the incumbent. The race is also drawing national attention as we are one of only two states, alongside Virginia, electing a governor in 2025. Political analysts will look to it as a key indicator of the new presidential administration's popularity. With the primary election less than five months away, we may be preparing for one of the most competitive and consequential New Jersey elections in recent history.
Who are the Republican candidates in the race?
Shields: Former assembly member Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP nominee, is running again after coming within 3.5 points of defeating Gov. Murphy four years ago. While Ciattarelli hopes for another shot, he'll face competition in the primary from state Sen. Jon Bramnick, radio host Bill Spadea and former state Sen. Ed Durr.
What about the Democratic field?
Shields: Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and Steve Sweeney, the former state senate president, are running again after withdrawing before the primary eight years ago. They're joined by U.S. Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, who is also president of the New Jersey Education Association.
What are the key issues?
Koning: All politics are national these days, and that now includes local and state-level races in the Garden State. New Jersey's 2021 gubernatorial race saw a shift toward national hot-button issues like reproductive health, critical race theory and COVID-19. With all eyes on New Jersey this fall, we should expect the same.
Candidates should focus on affordability and cost of living-national concerns with local urgency. Topics like high property taxes and the SALT cap have perennially been at the top of the list. Economic messaging is always a winning strategy, as it helped Ciattarelli narrow the gap in 2021, and often drives the research on why we see the governor's seat flip between the two parties regularly.
Is New Jersey a reliably Democratic state in gubernatorial races?
Shields: Predicting the outcome in November is tricky. While New Jersey is reliably blue in federal elections - it hasn't voted for a Republican senator or president in decades - that doesn't extend to gubernatorial races. The state recently had a two-term Republican governor, Chris Christie, and historically, the governorship has alternated between parties. In the past 50 years, no party has held the office for more than two consecutive terms. A Democratic win would, therefore, be historic.
However, several trends also favor Democrats. They have a significant registration advantage, and it's unclear if the gubernatorial race will energize Republican turnout like the 2024 presidential election. Get-out-the-vote efforts could make a strong difference in this race.
Who is trending favorably, and how does name recognition play a role in this race?
Koning: Name recognition is everything right now. Voters are fatigued from a tumultuous 2024 presidential election and the barrage of legislation from the new Trump administration and the 24/7 national news cycle. Voters aren't paying much attention right now despite the primaries being only five months away. While political insiders may very well know who the candidates are, most voters do not. According to our polling last fall, no candidate on either side of the aisle was viewed favorably by more than one in five voters, and at least half of voters did not take sides on any of the candidates about which we asked. In early pre-election polling for the June primaries, about half of voters on each side are undecided on their own party's candidates.
Are there signs of a shift in New Jersey's political landscape?
Shields: Yes, there are indicators of a potential rightward shift in recent election results. In 2021, Gov. Murphy's reelection margin was narrower than expected, and Vice President Kamala Harris's 2024 win in New Jersey was by a much smaller margin compared with Joe Biden's 2020 victory. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues here now that Republicans control all three branches of the federal government.
Koning: These past two elections certainly spooked New Jersey Democrats, but they point to a longstanding pattern about New Jersey that is often ignored: With some of the most affluent and least affluent areas in the country, and pockets of deep red and deep blue throughout the state, New Jersey is much more purple than most think. We often get mislabeled "Blue Jersey" because of our trend for voting for the Democratic presidential nominee since the Clinton era, but at the state and local level, we have a mixture of Democrats and Republicans.
What is the rebound effect, and how might it impact this election?
Shields: The rebound effect is a pattern where the party that loses the previous year's presidential election typically wins New Jersey's gubernatorial race. This has held true in every election since 1989, except in 2021, when Gov. Murphy was reelected after President Biden's victory. With the new presidential administration dominating the news, that backlash could be even stronger than usual. Democrats will certainly try, at any rate, to leverage any unpopularity of President Trump's agenda in New Jersey against the Republican gubernatorial candidates.
How will President Trump or Gov. Murphy play a role in the election?
Koning: Trump will be front and center with every candidate on the Democratic side trying to actively prove they are the opposite of the president. Republican candidates will grapple with whether to distance themselves or embrace him and to what degree. Given how large Trump looms in politics now, and how New Jersey's contest will be viewed as a national bellwether, Murphy may play a lesser but still prominent role and will act as a figure against which candidates will compare themselves and their opponents.
