As Australia's road toll continues to rise, with more than 1300 fatalities in 2024 marking an increase of 6% compared to 2023, a new study reveals the reasons why Australia won't achieve its zero-fatalities vision by 2050.
The study, published in the journal Injury, applied an advanced forecasting algorithm to 30 years of nationwide historical road traffic data to forecast the future of Australian road traffic fatalities (RTFs).
Flinders University data analytics expert Dr Ali Soltani applied the Facebook Prophet algorithm, an advanced predictive model, to data from 1989 to 2024, to forecast RTF trends up to 2050 by analysing factors such as geographic location, age, gender and speed limits.
The projections of the study highlight gaps in current safety interventions and reveal where safety initiatives could be tailored to address specific community risks.
"Despite substantial progress in road safety and a commitment to Vision Zero - zero road deaths by 2050 – road traffic fatalities continue to be a major issue in Australia," says Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute (FHMRI) researcher Dr Soltani.
"Our analysis not only gives projections for fatalities across the next 25 years, but also identifies the people and regions at higher risk, offering useful insights into road safety initiatives and prioritisation.
"The algorithm forecasted 998 fatalities across Australia in 2030, declining to 838 in 2040, and 715 by 2050, with older drivers (above 65 years old), men and motorcyclists continuing to be at greatest risk.
"We expect older drivers (above 65 years old) whose driving ability has declined, and male drivers, especially motorcyclists, will continue to be at the greatest risk of becoming a fatality statistic.
"In contrast we anticipate a much quicker drop in women driver fatalities, which could point to the more high-risk driving behaviours characterised by men."
The findings also reveal disparities between states with Queensland, Northern Territory, South Australia and Western Australia being slower to reduce road fatalities when compared to the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales.
"It is anticipated that the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales will have the most optimistic reduction in fatalities which may reflect the successful implementation of road safety measures and advancements in vehicle safety technologies in these regions," says Dr Soltani.
"Importantly, we expect the slowest fall in fatalities in Queensland and the Northern Territory, indicating the need for stricter traffic regulations if we are to mitigate road crash frequencies in these states.
"The results of our study show that if Australia wants to achieve its zero-fatalities vision, it cannot rely on business-as-usual scenario, and existing strategies.
"There must be a collaborative effort between governments, researchers, and industry to refine safety interventions.
"We need to see more prevention strategies such as gender-targeted safety campaigns, stricter penalties for traffic violations, and raising more awareness in vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and motorcyclists," adds Dr Soltani.
The article, 'Time-series Projecting Road Traffic Fatalities in Australia: Insights for Targeted Safety Interventions, by Ali Soltani, Saeid Afshari and Mohammad Amin Amiri, has been published in the journal Injury.
DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2025.112166
