UCLA
From "radioactive hurricanes" to overconfidence in cloud seeding, there are several reasons why humans won't ever be able to control the weather. Though hurricanes Helene and Milton ramped up conspiracy theories, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain says making, stopping or steering hurricanes isn't just science fiction now — it's likely to remain that way. Below are highlights about weather modification from Swain's full myth-busting conversation, which also ranged into contrails, conspiracies and solar radiation management. Says Swain:
- 3:53 "Forming or destroying or steering individual weather systems — like a hurricane — is not just something that we can't do now, but it's also something that I don't think we're ever going to be able to do."
- 7: 55 "There is such a thing as cloud seeding. It might work, and it only works, under certain conditions and to a very limited extent so far as we understand it today, and I personally and professionally think that a lot of the claims surrounding it have historically been overblown … even the most bold claims regarding the efficacy and the promise of cloud seeding will readily admit that it is at best something that can augment existing precipitation. So this is not a way to create a storm out of nothing. It's not even a way to create a cloud out of nothing. … You can squeeze maybe 5% to at most 10% extra rainfall or snowfall out of certain types of clouds, in certain settings, in very limited areas, so we're talking about areas just a few miles across.
- 10:09 "There have been questions as to why we don't, for example, detonate nuclear bombs to dissipate hurricanes. The answer primarily is becausehurricanes are essentially dissipating vastly larger quantities of energy than nuclear explosions … all you're left with is a radioactive hurricane."
- 22:39 "Even if you could harness that power, you still wouldn't be able to control exactly where a storm went or how it intensified, or whether you could weaken it consistently … for the same reason that we don't have perfect weather forecasts. There's always a range of potential outcomes, and a range of uncertainties. We would need to know the initial state of the atmosphere, perfectly, at all points on Earth three-dimensionally up into space. At all times we would need to know the initial state of the ocean, perfectly, at all points in time, all the way down to the bottom of the ocean."
Feel free to quote from Swain's comments or reach out to request an interview from him or UCLA's other climate experts. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, with expertise in extreme weather, including climate-change-driven rain and flooding, especially in California. He hosted a live briefing Oct. 17 on YouTube about wildfire weather ramping up in California.
