BAKU, November 20, 2024 - Already suffering from a decade of conflict, Yemen is facing mounting risks brought on by climate change, which is intensifying existing threats like water scarcity and food insecurity. The newly released Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) by the World Bank Group highlights the critical need for climate-responsive investments to tackle urgent challenges around water, agriculture, and disaster risk management, while considering the conflict-affected and fragile conditions in the country.
Yemen faces rising temperatures, unpredictable precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events, with significant impacts on its most vulnerable populations and economic prospects. Half of Yemenis are already exposed to at least one climate hazard - extreme heat, drought, or flooding - with compounding effects on food insecurity and poverty. These risks are expected to intensify without immediate action and Yemen's annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage.
Despite these challenges, the CCDR identifies strategic opportunities to strengthen resilience, improve food and water security, and unlock sustainable growth. For example, targeted investments in water storage and groundwater management, coupled with adaptive agriculture techniques could lead to productivity gains of up to 13.5% in crop production under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050. However, Yemen's fisheries sector remains vulnerable, with potential losses of up to 23% by mid-century due to rising sea temperatures.
"Yemen is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises - conflict, climate change, and poverty. Immediate and decisive action on climate resilience is a matter of survival for millions of Yemenis," said Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti. "By investing in water security, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy, Yemen can safeguard human capital, build resilience and lay the foundations for a path to sustainable recovery."
All scenarios for Yemen's future development will require peacebuilding efforts and significant commitments from the international community. While humanitarian assistance can support the ability of households to cope with climate shocks and build broader resilience, securing sustainable peace will be required to unlock the financing and take the action needed to build long-term resilience to climate change.
The report emphasizes that disaster risk management is critical, particularly as the frequency of flash floods increases. Urban areas and critical infrastructure are especially vulnerable, and without adaptation measures, economic shocks will disproportionately affect already fragile communities. Climate-related health issues could cost the country over US$5 billion in excess health costs by 2050, increasing healthcare costs and the strain on already fragile health systems. Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children
Yemen also has immense potential for renewable energy, which could serve as a key component of its climate response and recovery. Harnessing renewable energy resources not only offers a pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also enables the creation of a more resilient power infrastructure. This will be essential in supporting vital services such as healthcare, water supply, and food distribution, particularly in conflict-affected areas.
"The private sector has a critical role to play in addressing Yemen's pressing development challenges," said Khawaja Aftab Ahmed, IFC's Regional Director for the Middle East. "Harnessing its potential through innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments and creating a conducive investment climate can help mobilize the climate-focused funding the country urgently needs to build a greener and more resilient future."
The CCDR underscores the importance of flexible, risk-informed decision-making to adapt climate actions to Yemen's uncertain political landscape. The report's scenario-based approach allows for tailored climate investments depending on Yemen's progress towards peace or further conflict escalation. Under a "Peace and Prosperity" scenario, a higher level of adaptation can be implemented, yielding greater economic and social benefits.
World Bank Group Country Climate and Development Reports:
The World Bank Group's Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations to help attract funding and direct financing.
